{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "5c423a02-6db2-414d-a136-8c2320c9b3ce",
    "symbol": "ITV",
    "name": "ITV plc",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 66.826,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_down",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down",
    "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -61.875,
    "architecture_energy": 68.23,
    "architecture_maturity": 11.262,
    "architecture_confidence": 84.52,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 21.4,
        "rotation_up": 11.4,
        "upward_expansion": 17.31,
        "deceleration": 34.46,
        "rotation_down": 71.58,
        "downward_expansion": 88.31
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        0.734167,
        0.756973,
        0.777866,
        0.779861
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 0.73,
    "trend_reference": 0.781392,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.06577,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 0.682417,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.069727,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -12.565828,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.090116,
    "excess_performance": -0.141351,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.06577,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.001288,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.069727,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.148603,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.125658,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.123701,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.090116,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.553717,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 67690432,
      "relative_activity": 1.700812,
      "balance": 0.553717,
      "dry_up": 1.450963,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 5
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.060867,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.260867,
      "from_high_reference": -0.133531,
      "from_low_reference": 0.159166
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 0.781392,
      "fair_value_reference": 0.682417,
      "structural_low": 0.71,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.007827,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.005567,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.16746,
        "worst_return": -0.077337,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.060073,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": 0.010689,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.175396,
        "worst_return": -0.014235,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.08702,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.013795,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.297204,
        "worst_return": -0.144177,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.193769,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.105945,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.348935,
        "worst_return": -0.368527,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.132061,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-02-07",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.064147,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.039636,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.122233,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-06-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.015578,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-06-27",
        "end": "2025-09-19",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.047505,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-10-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.039265,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-10-17",
        "end": "2025-10-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.063214,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-11-07",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.014566,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-12-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.000608,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "end": "2026-01-02",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.029572,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "end": "2026-05-01",
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        "return": 0.04068,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "return": -0.097531,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.000684,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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      {
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        "gate": "mixed",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 48868225.6,
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        "fair_value": 0.680628,
        "relative_strength": -11.900588,
        "stage": 3,
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        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -30.435567,
        "energy": 47.505178,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.7425,
        "volume": 47281446,
        "typical_volume": 47994604.95,
        "trend": 0.783004,
        "fair_value": 0.681572,
        "relative_strength": -11.182599,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -31.166739,
        "energy": 54.533823,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.741533,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.73,
        "volume": 67690432,
        "typical_volume": 39798886.75,
        "trend": 0.781392,
        "fair_value": 0.682417,
        "relative_strength": -12.565828,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -61.874501,
        "energy": 68.229878,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}