{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c4654ea-45ed-41be-bac5-a786d9fada13", "symbol": "SM1", "name": "Synlait Milk Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.958, "architecture_energy": 60.87, "architecture_maturity": 92.952, "architecture_confidence": 88.559, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.01, "rotation_up": 22.33, "upward_expansion": 9.87, "deceleration": 57.7, "rotation_down": 63.7, "downward_expansion": 85.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.300667, 0.308636, 0.327048, 0.344516 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.295, "trend_reference": 0.3775, "distance_from_trend": -0.218543, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.594696, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.503948, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.434955, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.344444, "excess_performance": -0.40815, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.218543, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.185545, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.503948, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023719, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.41435, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071391, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.344444, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.237942, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15943, "relative_activity": 0.200247, "balance": 1.237942, "dry_up": 0.756566, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082138, "annualized_volatility": 0.354774, "from_high_reference": -0.611842, "from_low_reference": 0.035088 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.3775, "fair_value_reference": 0.594696, "structural_low": 0.285, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.032258, "positive_rate": 0.297297, "directional_follow_through": 0.648649, "median_excess_return": -0.030583, "regime_survival": 0.891892, "best_return": 0.363636, "worst_return": -0.287356, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.206664, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.201707, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.418182, "worst_return": -0.592593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.205736, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.236663, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.003268, "worst_return": -0.673307, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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}, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.025, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.826667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.026549, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.277778, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": 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0.617196, "relative_strength": -39.203133, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.319254, "energy": 88.912152, "activity_lines": [ 0.307333, 0.323364, 0.341048, 0.361903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.315, "volume": 209822, "typical_volume": 87935.25, "trend": 0.393667, "fair_value": 0.609599, "relative_strength": -35.297808, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.394448, "energy": 76.56072, "activity_lines": [ 0.307, 0.319455, 0.337095, 0.356366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.3, "volume": 15174, "typical_volume": 87031.9, "trend": 0.385, "fair_value": 0.602035, "relative_strength": -39.19763, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.965608, "energy": 65.381728, "activity_lines": [ 0.303667, 0.314, 0.332095, 0.350323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.295, "volume": 15943, "typical_volume": 79616.65, "trend": 0.3775, "fair_value": 0.594696, "relative_strength": -41.434955, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.958337, "energy": 60.86985, "activity_lines": [ 0.300667, 0.308636, 0.327048, 0.344516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }