{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c4a6daf-d590-4e3f-a8dc-da28447f9873", "symbol": "AM26", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi NYSE Arca Gold Bugs", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.568, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -27.379, "architecture_energy": 27.567, "architecture_maturity": 46.932, "architecture_confidence": 63.65, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.49, "rotation_up": 27.96, "upward_expansion": 18.37, "deceleration": 63.46, "rotation_down": 36.28, "downward_expansion": 66.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.907332, 56.323818, 58.473238, 60.819591 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 64.129997, "trend_reference": 63.885333, "distance_from_trend": 0.00383, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 39.490834, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.623921, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.385017, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.033022, "excess_performance": -0.207269, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00383, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00029, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.623921, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118876, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10385, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167037, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.033022, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.546957, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 728, "relative_activity": 2.183891, "balance": 0.546957, "dry_up": 0.959202, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069006, "annualized_volatility": 0.548789, "from_high_reference": -0.23809, "from_low_reference": 0.650331 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.885333, "fair_value_reference": 39.490834, "structural_low": 50.189999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.088616, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.072168, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.088616, "worst_return": -0.088616, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"gate": "down", "direction": -74.124133, "energy": 76.581785, "activity_lines": [ 56.204667, 57.660182, 60.853952, 62.97972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 51.240002, "volume": 551, "typical_volume": 1280.8, "trend": 64.210667, "fair_value": 39.09242, "relative_strength": -24.935016, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.654105, "energy": 80.390985, "activity_lines": [ 54.447334, 56.194364, 59.661143, 62.124043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 54.970001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 559.4, "trend": 64.000333, "fair_value": 39.210031, "relative_strength": -20.67386, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.045961, "energy": 61.479135, "activity_lines": [ 54.311334, 55.665819, 58.961619, 61.527871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.759998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 395.7, "trend": 63.868, "fair_value": 39.309663, "relative_strength": -23.886074, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.120641, "energy": 66.061288, "activity_lines": [ 53.623333, 54.889818, 58.137905, 60.802688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 64.129997, "volume": 728, "typical_volume": 333.35, "trend": 63.885333, "fair_value": 39.490834, "relative_strength": -10.385017, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.379123, "energy": 27.567284, "activity_lines": [ 56.907332, 56.323818, 58.473238, 60.819591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }