{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c4bcca3-fa1f-4873-b603-89a68134c219", "symbol": "CORN", "name": "TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST CORN FD SHS", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 65.893, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.615, "architecture_energy": 21.907, "architecture_maturity": 25.287, "architecture_confidence": 64.541, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.97, "rotation_up": 41.37, "upward_expansion": 26.24, "deceleration": 40.73, "rotation_down": 20.53, "downward_expansion": 48.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.782667, 17.531636, 17.631762, 17.765624 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 17.64, "trend_reference": 17.825833, "distance_from_trend": -0.010425, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.933667, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.068326, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.638811, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.008, "excess_performance": -0.117625, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010425, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009022, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.068326, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026199, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116388, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04077, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.008, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.570967, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 937562, "relative_activity": 0.294631, "balance": 0.570967, "dry_up": 0.42642, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037406, "annualized_volatility": 0.158049, "from_high_reference": -0.077888, "from_low_reference": 0.07791 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.825833, "fair_value_reference": 18.933667, "structural_low": 16.365, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.010466, "positive_rate": 0.684211, "directional_follow_through": 0.684211, "median_excess_return": -0.005996, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.066969, "worst_return": -0.075727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.00186, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012164, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.124516, "worst_return": -0.159866, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.024516, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.028236, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.40715, "worst_return": -0.130994, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.12434, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.221612, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.358491, "worst_return": -0.16886, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.010982, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051428, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.064195, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040265, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049788, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007019, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.039258, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.051675, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049277, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036769, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.07387, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00531, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046856, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 22.52, "volume": 316851, "typical_volume": 460249.85, "trend": 24.285333, "fair_value": 22.142396, "relative_strength": -18.321844, "stage": 4, "regime": 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"relative_strength": -8.134194, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.470617, "energy": 27.892427, "activity_lines": [ 17.338, 17.283818, 17.641714, 17.759462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.3, "volume": 1724175, "typical_volume": 3811250.3, "trend": 17.8335, "fair_value": 18.996103, "relative_strength": -4.679034, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.116045, "energy": 15.306601, "activity_lines": [ 17.709333, 17.443455, 17.677667, 17.789989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.65, "volume": 1396828, "typical_volume": 3613036.55, "trend": 17.834167, "fair_value": 18.963475, "relative_strength": -8.771558, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.026144, "energy": 23.328696, "activity_lines": [ 17.774, 17.482, 17.652762, 17.778151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.64, "volume": 937562, "typical_volume": 3182155.7, "trend": 17.825833, "fair_value": 18.933667, "relative_strength": -11.638811, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.61525, "energy": 21.906935, "activity_lines": [ 17.782667, 17.531636, 17.631762, 17.765624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }