{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c4f9629-cf9e-4971-994a-089b7e05308e", "symbol": "DLHC", "name": "DLH Holdings Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.884, "architecture_energy": 65.114, "architecture_maturity": 25.339, "architecture_confidence": 91.016, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.01, "rotation_up": 15.62, "upward_expansion": 12.68, "deceleration": 41.72, "rotation_down": 68.57, "downward_expansion": 88.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.994667, 5.123273, 5.338762, 5.47114 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4.82, "trend_reference": 5.616, "distance_from_trend": -0.141738, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.483141, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.431814, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.960475, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.178876, "excess_performance": -0.366329, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.141738, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035935, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.431814, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085146, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.259605, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105363, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.178876, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.073526, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 97667, "relative_activity": 0.5196, "balance": 0.073526, "dry_up": 0.49167, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070005, "annualized_volatility": 0.308855, "from_high_reference": -0.404938, "from_low_reference": 0.023355 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.616, "fair_value_reference": 8.483141, "structural_low": 4.71, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.037072, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.040206, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.27551, "worst_return": -0.33908, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.096205, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.136064, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.408163, "worst_return": -0.477333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.210977, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.270885, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.649215, "worst_return": -0.511222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.076548, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.161043, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.516696, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001838, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012567, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069892, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055184, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.02509, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08365, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.96, "volume": 59517, "typical_volume": 109852.8, "trend": 10.907333, "fair_value": 12.63016, "relative_strength": -21.359229, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.496176, "energy": 72.499401, "activity_lines": [ 5.224, 5.355273, 5.548048, 5.626882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.5, "volume": 133207, "typical_volume": 180708.7, "trend": 5.69, "fair_value": 8.590577, "relative_strength": -13.779211, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.334354, "energy": 59.17131, "activity_lines": [ 5.290667, 5.364545, 5.531524, 5.614323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.09, "volume": 25060, "typical_volume": 180726.55, "trend": 5.671333, "fair_value": 8.5575, "relative_strength": -18.399154, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.048267, "energy": 63.421179, "activity_lines": [ 5.221333, 5.304909, 5.478333, 5.575613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.88, "volume": 113735, "typical_volume": 185041.6, "trend": 5.648, "fair_value": 8.519872, "relative_strength": -21.712838, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.034983, "energy": 67.456285, "activity_lines": [ 5.105333, 5.213455, 5.408762, 5.524559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.82, "volume": 97667, "typical_volume": 187965.9, "trend": 5.616, "fair_value": 8.483141, "relative_strength": -25.960475, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.883736, "energy": 65.11403, "activity_lines": [ 4.994667, 5.123273, 5.338762, 5.47114 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }