{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c4fbf63-8378-4b3f-a0d3-e173a9853034", "symbol": "ORTI-A", "name": "Ortivus AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 88.688, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 22.346, "architecture_energy": 18.086, "architecture_maturity": 34.998, "architecture_confidence": 66.775, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.76, "rotation_up": 38.22, "upward_expansion": 44.29, "deceleration": 37.48, "rotation_down": 35.84, "downward_expansion": 18.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.132667, 2.094727, 2.085881, 2.068344 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.3, "trend_reference": 2.115, "distance_from_trend": 0.08747, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.446952, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.332744, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.330858, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.19171, "excess_performance": 0.130215, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.08747, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001181, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.332744, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033168, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.113309, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035816, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.19171, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.277539, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 464, "relative_activity": 0.225319, "balance": 0.277539, "dry_up": 0.297917, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.139465, "annualized_volatility": 1.131484, "from_high_reference": -0.321534, "from_low_reference": 0.769231 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.115, "fair_value_reference": 3.446952, "structural_low": 1.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.015395, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.027539, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.319066, "worst_return": -0.491803, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.003145, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.120571, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.342105, "worst_return": -0.357377, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.051095, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.138756, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.128713, "worst_return": -0.196429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.280425, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.452396, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.386139, "worst_return": -0.491892, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-12-09", "end": "2023-01-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.189781, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-01-27", "end": "2023-05-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.121495, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-05-26", "end": "2023-07-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069767, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-07-21", "end": "2023-10-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008696, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.196429, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.424, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.069182, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085546, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044444, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.255556, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.490164, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.16129, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.041667, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.6, "volume": 7252, "typical_volume": 6545.25, "trend": 5.661667, "fair_value": 5.644038, "relative_strength": -6.214091, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": 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"volume": 5291, "typical_volume": 5030.95, "trend": 2.027833, "fair_value": 3.545926, "relative_strength": -28.819557, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.497924, "energy": 4.831538, "activity_lines": [ 2.05, 2.083455, 2.049571, 2.059011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.88, "volume": 1986, "typical_volume": 2929.35, "trend": 2.043833, "fair_value": 3.521119, "relative_strength": -27.207251, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.865628, "energy": 14.869838, "activity_lines": [ 1.968667, 2.037818, 2.038714, 2.049473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.88, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2689.35, "trend": 2.055333, "fair_value": 3.493747, "relative_strength": -27.182424, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.02372, "energy": 32.420126, "activity_lines": [ 1.915333, 2.001636, 2.029048, 2.038903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.3, "volume": 4, "typical_volume": 2136.7, "trend": 2.088333, "fair_value": 3.470349, "relative_strength": -10.874974, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.761874, "energy": 11.35697, "activity_lines": [ 2.023333, 2.051273, 2.059238, 2.054688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.3, "volume": 464, "typical_volume": 2059.3, "trend": 2.115, "fair_value": 3.446952, "relative_strength": -11.330858, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.345592, "energy": 18.086376, "activity_lines": [ 2.132667, 2.094727, 2.085881, 2.068344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }