{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c519be7-858c-439e-a83a-a324dc476e10", "symbol": "SANCO", "name": "Sanco Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 63.673, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.685, "architecture_energy": 13.558, "architecture_maturity": 37.164, "architecture_confidence": 92.288, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.35, "rotation_up": 21.68, "upward_expansion": 45.82, "deceleration": 80.37, "rotation_down": 26.5, "downward_expansion": 13.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.9, 2.9, 2.944619, 2.842043 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 2.9, "trend_reference": 2.769667, "distance_from_trend": 0.047057, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.400192, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.340938, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 15.396306, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.086142, "excess_performance": 0.129851, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.047057, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106686, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.340938, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004945, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.153963, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133864, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.086142, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.272189, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 4.272189, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068435, "annualized_volatility": 0.558114, "from_high_reference": -0.312796, "from_low_reference": 0.746988 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.769667, "fair_value_reference": 4.400192, "structural_low": 2.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.011995, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.578313, "worst_return": -0.389313, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.085789, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.120391, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.475113, "worst_return": -0.436667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.155907, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.230567, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.11, "worst_return": -0.215267, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.190281, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.33646, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.033333, "worst_return": -0.48542, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.304569, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022298, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.079767, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.034014, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060241, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.042735, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.21393, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.146667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.181818, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030612, 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.649636, "energy": 21.049683, "activity_lines": [ 2.9, 3.009091, 2.898, 2.802946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.9, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 39955.5, "trend": 2.738667, "fair_value": 4.486731, "relative_strength": 15.931368, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.899216, "energy": 17.686466, "activity_lines": [ 2.9, 2.967818, 2.914429, 2.815376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.9, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 37844.0, "trend": 2.768, "fair_value": 4.455641, "relative_strength": 18.964689, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.087025, "energy": 15.113742, "activity_lines": [ 2.9, 2.931818, 2.927571, 2.825785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.9, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 35233.85, "trend": 2.78, "fair_value": 4.426795, "relative_strength": 16.169937, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.803857, "energy": 11.698159, "activity_lines": [ 2.9, 2.906545, 2.937238, 2.834301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.9, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 32365.1, "trend": 2.769667, "fair_value": 4.400192, "relative_strength": 15.396306, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.685362, "energy": 13.55832, "activity_lines": [ 2.9, 2.9, 2.944619, 2.842043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }