{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c534541-e5be-4b00-af72-6786fedafad8", "symbol": "XDUH", "name": "iShares Core MSCI US Quality Dividend Index ETF (CAD-Hedged)", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.224, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.599, "architecture_energy": 69.244, "architecture_maturity": 26.661, "architecture_confidence": 67.31, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 2.94, "rotation_up": 77.06, "upward_expansion": 89.7, "deceleration": 48.99, "rotation_down": 15.13, "downward_expansion": 11.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.265783, 32.009201, 31.514083, 31.182834 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 32.619999, "trend_reference": 30.824021, "distance_from_trend": 0.058266, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.191059, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.199659, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.127412, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.049841, "excess_performance": -0.07058, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.058266, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031916, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.199659, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063014, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031274, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045293, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.049841, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 14.945455, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22800, "relative_activity": 2.860728, "balance": 14.945455, "dry_up": 1.442911, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017427, "annualized_volatility": 0.093541, "from_high_reference": -0.006699, "from_low_reference": 0.180411 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.824021, "fair_value_reference": 27.191059, "structural_low": 29.489513, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.00942, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": -0.008783, "regime_survival": 0.735294, "best_return": 0.052488, "worst_return": -0.064904, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.008869, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.023555, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.069749, "worst_return": -0.060162, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.041517, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.001004, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.07683, "worst_return": -0.044855, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 31.800623, "volume": 4800, "typical_volume": 7210.0, "trend": 30.400109, "fair_value": 26.969887, "relative_strength": -3.526022, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.168958, "energy": 61.462628, "activity_lines": [ 31.663614, 31.436447, 30.957588, 30.7527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.835562, "volume": 3500, "typical_volume": 6950.0, "trend": 30.490303, "fair_value": 27.022671, "relative_strength": -3.079438, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.153949, "energy": 68.24482, "activity_lines": [ 31.752737, 31.55544, 31.069259, 30.84531 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.165001, "volume": 13200, "typical_volume": 7105.0, "trend": 30.585758, "fair_value": 27.076289, "relative_strength": -2.146346, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.511048, "energy": 75.135894, "activity_lines": [ 31.940051, 31.702548, 31.210224, 30.953355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.23, "volume": 6500, "typical_volume": 7155.0, "trend": 30.707304, "fair_value": 27.133002, "relative_strength": -1.360832, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.724876, "energy": 67.246967, "activity_lines": [ 32.06554, 31.832033, 31.349089, 31.059435 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.619999, "volume": 22800, "typical_volume": 7970.0, "trend": 30.824021, "fair_value": 27.191059, "relative_strength": -3.127412, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.599027, "energy": 69.243703, "activity_lines": [ 32.265783, 32.009201, 31.514083, 31.182834 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }