{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c563823-72c4-4fb3-9c4f-d662a296b792", "symbol": "AVGL", "name": "Avgol Industries 1953 Ltd", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -91.979, "architecture_energy": 91.871, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.889, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 18.91, "upward_expansion": 19.7, "deceleration": 38.62, "rotation_down": 78.58, "downward_expansion": 97.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.869533, 0.900527, 0.975938, 1.038222 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.816, "trend_reference": 1.1228, "distance_from_trend": -0.273245, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.365654, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.402484, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.731639, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.374713, "excess_performance": -0.403613, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.273245, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118312, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.402484, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.218904, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.417316, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043946, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.374713, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 79584, "relative_activity": 0.500614, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.697666, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056844, "annualized_volatility": 0.185357, "from_high_reference": -0.474903, "from_low_reference": 0.007407 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.1228, "fair_value_reference": 1.365654, "structural_low": 0.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.023608, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": -0.02548, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.254572, "worst_return": -0.162682, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.080134, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.084233, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.288998, "worst_return": -0.256713, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.043696, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.068441, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.064196, "worst_return": -0.144468, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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147775.75, "trend": 1.172267, "fair_value": 1.375897, "relative_strength": -38.015465, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.972444, "energy": 83.699575, "activity_lines": [ 0.9278, 0.960218, 1.037357, 1.094591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.901, "volume": 268522, "typical_volume": 160999.3, "trend": 1.157233, "fair_value": 1.372615, "relative_strength": -38.944139, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.3914, "energy": 83.229096, "activity_lines": [ 0.9156, 0.942327, 1.018619, 1.07709 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.88, "volume": 10310, "typical_volume": 158522.95, "trend": 1.141233, "fair_value": 1.369372, "relative_strength": -37.914533, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.640637, "energy": 81.698377, "activity_lines": [ 0.901133, 0.924964, 0.999562, 1.059204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.816, "volume": 79584, "typical_volume": 158972.85, "trend": 1.1228, "fair_value": 1.365654, "relative_strength": -41.731639, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.978993, "energy": 91.871291, "activity_lines": [ 0.869533, 0.900527, 0.975938, 1.038222 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }