{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c56578d-5571-4102-9734-e907e87c5607", "symbol": "META", "name": "WisdomTree Industrial Metals Enhanced", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 62.898, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.242, "architecture_energy": 32.782, "architecture_maturity": 16.265, "architecture_confidence": 56.046, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.13, "rotation_up": 50.91, "upward_expansion": 63.83, "deceleration": 56.95, "rotation_down": 19.53, "downward_expansion": 16.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.302666, 36.132, 36.133738, 35.835441 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 36.639999, "trend_reference": 35.467334, "distance_from_trend": 0.033063, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.723574, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.154977, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.420145, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.065736, "excess_performance": -0.105156, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.033063, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040754, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.154977, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004293, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.064201, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054409, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.065736, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.539787, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 281, "relative_activity": 0.035323, "balance": 4.539787, "dry_up": 0.044405, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020868, "annualized_volatility": 0.153955, "from_high_reference": -0.024364, "from_low_reference": 0.277323 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.467334, "fair_value_reference": 31.723574, "structural_low": 32.654999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.009893, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.008203, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.228089, "worst_return": -0.111885, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.055016, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.031616, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.141678, "worst_return": -0.075311, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.161692, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.02681, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.211832, "worst_return": -0.055179, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009893, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005914, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.151071, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025653, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061738, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001711, "active": false }, 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"regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.747217, "energy": 25.781357, "activity_lines": [ 35.712666, 36.060546, 35.917358, 35.623452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.349998, "volume": 198, "typical_volume": 10499.4, "trend": 35.322167, "fair_value": 31.628606, "relative_strength": -3.842816, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.539816, "energy": 23.015567, "activity_lines": [ 35.884999, 36.070909, 35.988905, 35.698269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.220001, "volume": 609, "typical_volume": 10513.95, "trend": 35.411667, "fair_value": 31.672549, "relative_strength": -4.790107, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.197063, "energy": 21.451599, "activity_lines": [ 36.046, 36.058454, 36.042262, 35.756194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.639999, "volume": 281, "typical_volume": 7955.1, "trend": 35.467334, "fair_value": 31.723574, "relative_strength": -6.420145, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.242042, "energy": 32.78159, "activity_lines": [ 36.302666, 36.132, 36.133738, 35.835441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }