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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.448, "architecture_energy": 71.331, "architecture_maturity": 17.969, "architecture_confidence": 87.023, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.56, "rotation_up": 68.32, "upward_expansion": 87.19, "deceleration": 49.24, "rotation_down": 16.47, "downward_expansion": 13.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 409.224667, 400.302364, 387.834768, 371.465728 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 423.88, "trend_reference": 353.346959, "distance_from_trend": 0.199614, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 295.981079, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.432119, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 17.341945, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.208925, "excess_performance": 0.0833, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.199614, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119221, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.432119, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.138757, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.173419, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089396, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.208925, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.362908, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1640049, "relative_activity": 1.001568, "balance": 1.362908, "dry_up": 1.058068, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055448, "annualized_volatility": 0.258567, "from_high_reference": -0.002084, "from_low_reference": 0.647803 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 353.346959, "fair_value_reference": 295.981079, "structural_low": 288.098737, 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383.172667, 384.848377, 367.950374, 354.796276 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 395.93, "volume": 1130252, "typical_volume": 1630595.2, "trend": 341.907056, "fair_value": 293.281986, "relative_strength": 15.29094, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.553325, "energy": 36.78633, "activity_lines": [ 385.364, 387.426584, 372.407695, 358.511989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 407.83, "volume": 2551752, "typical_volume": 1676127.55, "trend": 345.68509, "fair_value": 294.122738, "relative_strength": 19.090879, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.11373, "energy": 47.526528, "activity_lines": [ 392.688667, 391.661273, 377.604764, 362.765082 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 406.1, "volume": 1608213, "typical_volume": 1654654.45, "trend": 349.434901, "fair_value": 294.991279, "relative_strength": 16.863255, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.712962, "energy": 52.288515, "activity_lines": [ 398.670667, 394.720909, 382.134217, 366.662818 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 423.88, "volume": 1640049, "typical_volume": 1637481.1, "trend": 353.346959, "fair_value": 295.981079, "relative_strength": 17.341945, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.448051, "energy": 71.33145, "activity_lines": [ 409.224667, 400.302364, 387.834768, 371.465728 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }