{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c5a022e-68a7-4c1c-804f-8bec64efdb52", "symbol": "C06", "name": "CSC Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.589, "architecture_energy": 19.851, "architecture_maturity": 62.742, "architecture_confidence": 84.738, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.13, "rotation_up": 25.89, "upward_expansion": 14.25, "deceleration": 46.37, "rotation_down": 28.81, "downward_expansion": 61.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.012933, 0.012727, 0.013286, 0.013733 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.013, "trend_reference": 0.014333, "distance_from_trend": -0.093023, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.010572, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.229686, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.262702, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.133333, "excess_performance": -0.288168, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.093023, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057018, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.229686, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.343297, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.292627, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.278083, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.133333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.272715, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 797800, "relative_activity": 0.079629, "balance": 0.272715, "dry_up": 0.254898, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112426, "annualized_volatility": 0.382505, "from_high_reference": -0.409091, "from_low_reference": 0.181818 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.014333, "fair_value_reference": 0.010572, "structural_low": 0.011, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.322581, "directional_follow_through": 0.387097, "median_excess_return": 0.006903, "regime_survival": 0.741935, "best_return": 0.500051, "worst_return": -0.181801, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.015475, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.555606, "worst_return": -0.230812, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.010718, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 1.158355, "worst_return": -0.230812, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.222197, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.090901, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.738064, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, 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0.010452, "relative_strength": -33.357515, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.173759, "energy": 71.11888, "activity_lines": [ 0.0122, 0.012764, 0.013667, 0.014131 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.013, "volume": 6404000, "typical_volume": 11639430.0, "trend": 0.014567, "fair_value": 0.010485, "relative_strength": -28.144485, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.731133, "energy": 57.537973, "activity_lines": [ 0.0124, 0.012691, 0.013557, 0.014026 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.013, "volume": 994800, "typical_volume": 10953195.0, "trend": 0.014533, "fair_value": 0.010512, "relative_strength": -28.789008, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.58964, "energy": 40.320433, "activity_lines": [ 0.0126, 0.012673, 0.013457, 0.013925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.013, "volume": 2018700, "typical_volume": 10610435.0, "trend": 0.014433, "fair_value": 0.010545, "relative_strength": -28.883884, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.647842, "energy": 27.279555, "activity_lines": [ 0.0128, 0.012691, 0.013367, 0.013826 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.013, "volume": 797800, "typical_volume": 10018995.0, "trend": 0.014333, "fair_value": 0.010572, "relative_strength": -29.262702, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.588892, "energy": 19.851286, "activity_lines": [ 0.012933, 0.012727, 0.013286, 0.013733 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }