{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c5b8a1f-cb8a-48a2-bb13-c3f3d99f0b8b", "symbol": "TYGO", "name": "Tigo Energy Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -82.803, "architecture_energy": 89.824, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.489, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.33, "rotation_up": 12.04, "upward_expansion": 21.3, "deceleration": 37.33, "rotation_down": 78.95, "downward_expansion": 96.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.618, 1.888, 2.637714, 2.974043 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.22, "trend_reference": 3.270667, "distance_from_trend": -0.626987, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.161179, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.435493, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -59.806336, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.696517, "excess_performance": -0.883971, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.626987, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051887, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.435493, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.67681, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.598063, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.167197, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.696517, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.127899, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18321052, "relative_activity": 3.510821, "balance": 0.127899, "dry_up": 1.69596, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.469098, "annualized_volatility": 0.966729, "from_high_reference": -0.770957, "from_low_reference": 0.311828 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.270667, "fair_value_reference": 2.161179, "structural_low": 0.93, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.017389, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.193917, "worst_return": -0.508728, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.031149, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.010627, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.633782, "worst_return": -0.620948, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.074114, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.034549, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.163636, "worst_return": -0.725686, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.27549, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.13108, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.231579, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.433071, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.162921, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 1.344371, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.343234, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.151976, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.242152, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.361257, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.97, "volume": 288516, "typical_volume": 436701.25, "trend": 13.688437, "fair_value": 11.06337, "relative_strength": -20.745171, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", 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77.266921, "activity_lines": [ 2.013333, 2.480727, 3.144571, 3.296409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.69, "volume": 5491321, "typical_volume": 4247966.05, "trend": 3.27, "fair_value": 2.343679, "relative_strength": -41.218123, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.184625, "energy": 88.59095, "activity_lines": [ 1.853333, 2.257273, 2.97581, 3.194903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.91, "volume": 6474473, "typical_volume": 4462928.75, "trend": 3.283333, "fair_value": 2.227077, "relative_strength": -34.050563, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.873446, "energy": 83.913008, "activity_lines": [ 1.84, 2.114909, 2.836, 3.107161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.22, "volume": 18321052, "typical_volume": 5218452.25, "trend": 3.270667, "fair_value": 2.161179, "relative_strength": -59.806336, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.802821, "energy": 89.823752, "activity_lines": [ 1.618, 1.888, 2.637714, 2.974043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }