{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c5e63ae-67bf-4081-83f7-1195cf82e95c", "symbol": "FAN", "name": "FIRST TRUST EXCH TRADED FUND 2 GLOBAL WIND ENERGY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 71.354, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.918, "architecture_energy": 34.952, "architecture_maturity": 5.288, "architecture_confidence": 57.945, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.8, "rotation_up": 17.12, "upward_expansion": 20.13, "deceleration": 55.91, "rotation_down": 58.9, "downward_expansion": 47.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.94426, 24.16051, 24.752058, 24.71557 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 23.997, "trend_reference": 24.389549, "distance_from_trend": -0.016095, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.936467, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.337889, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.258711, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.056671, "excess_performance": -0.068954, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016095, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058245, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.337889, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.2082, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.042587, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.191983, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.056671, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.949984, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1625035, "relative_activity": 3.333074, "balance": 0.949984, "dry_up": 1.266775, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038705, "annualized_volatility": 0.17125, "from_high_reference": -0.117882, "from_low_reference": 0.33294 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.389549, "fair_value_reference": 17.936467, "structural_low": 22.79, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.043122, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.039101, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.043122, "worst_return": -0.043122, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.042783, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.053572, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.042783, "worst_return": -0.042783, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.076055, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.097428, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.076055, "worst_return": 0.076055, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.000381, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032308, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001192, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.096825, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067579, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.630477, "energy": 21.980707, "activity_lines": [ 24.74656, 25.262183, 25.242075, 24.681338 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 24.84, "volume": 286056, "typical_volume": 415843.65, "trend": 23.858796, "fair_value": 17.692408, "relative_strength": 3.417181, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.520619, "energy": 19.611231, "activity_lines": [ 24.692942, 25.1151, 25.23803, 24.754993 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 24.04, "volume": 607023, "typical_volume": 427558.7, "trend": 23.979989, "fair_value": 17.738238, "relative_strength": -1.383849, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.489406, "energy": 21.079174, "activity_lines": [ 24.459166, 24.847243, 25.149413, 24.766684 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.0421, "volume": 207693, "typical_volume": 426928.25, "trend": 24.101986, "fair_value": 17.784328, "relative_strength": 0.047074, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.070677, "energy": 22.075759, "activity_lines": [ 24.288206, 24.629501, 25.058424, 24.770691 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.0449, "volume": 150239, "typical_volume": 417688.15, "trend": 24.220649, "fair_value": 17.832663, "relative_strength": 0.538852, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.563903, "energy": 39.31807, "activity_lines": [ 24.169527, 24.460334, 24.96974, 24.767008 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.73, "volume": 487490, "typical_volume": 422769.75, "trend": 24.303649, "fair_value": 17.882874, "relative_strength": -1.931951, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.651408, "energy": 46.570673, "activity_lines": [ 23.991727, 24.264715, 24.848852, 24.735353 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.997, "volume": 1625035, "typical_volume": 487548.5, "trend": 24.389549, "fair_value": 17.936467, "relative_strength": -4.258711, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.918251, "energy": 34.95194, "activity_lines": [ 23.94426, 24.16051, 24.752058, 24.71557 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }