{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c613f9b-48f8-4324-acd3-6ed71cb9cd35", "symbol": "TRIP", "name": "Tripadvisor, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 27.178, "architecture_energy": 40.216, "architecture_maturity": 39.841, "architecture_confidence": 66.064, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.64, "rotation_up": 54.85, "upward_expansion": 77.63, "deceleration": 59.83, "rotation_down": 21.62, "downward_expansion": 16.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 230.433333, 230.581818, 216.932619, 208.683978 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 184.0, "trend_reference": 203.993666, "distance_from_trend": -0.098011, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 295.881282, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.378129, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.878441, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.223268, "excess_performance": -0.168601, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.098011, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085266, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.378129, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028583, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.268784, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078302, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.223268, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.336696, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 892, "relative_activity": 0.607692, "balance": 1.336696, "dry_up": 0.315257, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08153, "annualized_volatility": 0.802132, "from_high_reference": -0.45833, "from_low_reference": 0.115152 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 203.993666, "fair_value_reference": 295.881282, "structural_low": 165.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.023872, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.029603, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.173227, "worst_return": -0.202346, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.011429, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.020822, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.318681, "worst_return": -0.170088, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.000627, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.02097, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.210789, "worst_return": -0.372937, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036036, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.076433, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040034, "active": false }, { 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194.676904, 198.464322 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 221.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1422.05, "trend": 210.110333, "fair_value": 297.320385, "relative_strength": -17.091685, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.485948, "energy": 79.080212, "activity_lines": [ 218.2, 207.050908, 197.81619, 199.0443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 241.5, "volume": 475, "typical_volume": 1420.8, "trend": 208.893666, "fair_value": 297.054359, "relative_strength": -7.62557, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 69.242003, "energy": 88.888586, "activity_lines": [ 226.9, 214.636363, 202.64119, 201.06944 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 255.0, "volume": 959, "typical_volume": 1468.75, "trend": 208.126999, "fair_value": 296.874872, "relative_strength": -1.658308, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 69.763828, "energy": 89.0875, "activity_lines": [ 237.8, 223.849091, 208.459047, 204.044042 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 255.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1453.25, "trend": 207.360333, "fair_value": 296.695385, "relative_strength": -0.343146, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 63.402247, "energy": 87.021519, "activity_lines": [ 245.5, 231.989091, 213.919761, 207.068107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 255.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1423.25, "trend": 206.593666, "fair_value": 296.515898, "relative_strength": -0.176431, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.727891, "energy": 93.176279, "activity_lines": [ 250.933333, 238.536364, 219.013809, 210.141634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 184.0, "volume": 892, "typical_volume": 1467.85, "trend": 203.993666, "fair_value": 295.881282, "relative_strength": -26.878441, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.177711, "energy": 40.21563, "activity_lines": [ 230.433333, 230.581818, 216.932619, 208.683978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }