{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c6567e3-27a5-4323-a70a-a3d785c01f55", "symbol": "HBIE", "name": "Harvest Balanced Income & Growth Enhanced ETF Class A", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 57.111, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.503, "architecture_energy": 49.217, "architecture_maturity": 57.547, "architecture_confidence": 71.592, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.93, "rotation_up": 45.1, "upward_expansion": 73.89, "deceleration": 91.23, "rotation_down": 29.25, "downward_expansion": 11.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.903224, 23.899878, 23.768284, 23.518878 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.26, "trend_reference": 23.246268, "distance_from_trend": 0.043608, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.580147, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.124181, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.56621, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.057033, "excess_performance": -0.063388, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043608, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019464, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.124181, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026527, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.055662, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006588, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.057033, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.364486, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7000, "relative_activity": 1.143791, "balance": 3.364486, "dry_up": 0.866013, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011701, "annualized_volatility": 0.082106, "from_high_reference": -0.002467, "from_low_reference": 0.150559 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.246268, "fair_value_reference": 21.580147, "structural_low": 21.868246, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.02476, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065172, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.018022, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024061, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-04-19", "close": 18.923315, "volume": 4900, "typical_volume": null, 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23.950838, 23.892572, 23.56055, 23.340546 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.847216, "volume": 2800, "typical_volume": 6165.0, "trend": 23.151109, "fair_value": 21.522361, "relative_strength": -5.048115, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.502749, "energy": 56.491236, "activity_lines": [ 23.912276, 23.901233, 23.619077, 23.38794 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.60924, "volume": 7100, "typical_volume": 5970.0, "trend": 23.17345, "fair_value": 21.539898, "relative_strength": -5.995903, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.602291, "energy": 42.456169, "activity_lines": [ 23.802265, 23.858276, 23.65076, 23.417497 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.690001, "volume": 4300, "typical_volume": 5985.0, "trend": 23.20515, "fair_value": 21.557815, "relative_strength": -5.012264, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.433295, "energy": 33.302007, "activity_lines": [ 23.753827, 23.828127, 23.685418, 23.450823 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.26, "volume": 7000, "typical_volume": 6120.0, "trend": 23.246268, "fair_value": 21.580147, "relative_strength": -5.56621, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.503369, "energy": 49.216624, "activity_lines": [ 23.903224, 23.899878, 23.768284, 23.518878 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }