{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c65ae68-69e3-4b76-9602-3304c99ba22e", "symbol": "CMEY", "name": "CI Marret Alternative Enhanced Yield Fund - ETF C$ Series", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.387, "architecture_energy": 40.061, "architecture_maturity": 2.012, "architecture_confidence": 63.546, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.27, "rotation_up": 14.42, "upward_expansion": 20.91, "deceleration": 54.37, "rotation_down": 61.73, "downward_expansion": 45.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.570472, 19.601276, 19.62084, 19.615862 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.6, "trend_reference": 19.602867, "distance_from_trend": -0.000146, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.504012, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.05923, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.669034, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.001879, "excess_performance": -0.118542, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000146, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004989, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.05923, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014027, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10669, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007052, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.001879, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.54902, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2600, "relative_activity": 0.988593, "balance": 5.54902, "dry_up": 0.389734, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003172, "annualized_volatility": 0.020058, "from_high_reference": -0.00888, "from_low_reference": 0.02854 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.602867, "fair_value_reference": 18.504012, "structural_low": 19.426445, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.001982, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.035541, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.01462, "worst_return": -0.014979, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.015343, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.040157, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.033072, "worst_return": 0.009333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.04084, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.041777, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.049692, "worst_return": 0.037745, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005171, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009349, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.026241, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004157, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.005335, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00813, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005452, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008533, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 16.925076, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1725.0, "trend": 17.00362, "fair_value": 16.858606, "relative_strength": 1.105131, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.54154, "energy": 18.936935, "activity_lines": [ 19.635013, 19.650124, 19.639774, 19.623504 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.538, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2520.0, "trend": 19.592462, "fair_value": 18.470627, "relative_strength": -9.268691, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": -13.339062, "energy": 22.765091, "activity_lines": [ 19.59778, 19.630175, 19.631831, 19.620342 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.52, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2520.0, "trend": 19.596986, "fair_value": 18.487148, "relative_strength": -8.55108, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.175972, "energy": 47.243781, "activity_lines": [ 19.566539, 19.608012, 19.62249, 19.615668 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.6, "volume": 2600, "typical_volume": 2630.0, "trend": 19.602867, "fair_value": 18.504012, "relative_strength": -10.669034, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.387262, "energy": 40.061198, "activity_lines": [ 19.570472, 19.601276, 19.62084, 19.615862 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }