{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c66c27c-a378-4369-bef2-73a82f376f16", "symbol": "601099", "name": "The Pacific Securities Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.885, "architecture_energy": 24.814, "architecture_maturity": 90.276, "architecture_confidence": 74.881, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.83, "rotation_up": 26.24, "upward_expansion": 19.22, "deceleration": 46.49, "rotation_down": 29.14, "downward_expansion": 55.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.408667, 3.389636, 3.429143, 3.538925 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.42, "trend_reference": 3.717, "distance_from_trend": -0.079903, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.837179, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.10872, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.956271, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.185714, "excess_performance": -0.14251, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.079903, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071678, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.10872, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096733, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.139563, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029708, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.185714, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.247427, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 438934826, "relative_activity": 1.050928, "balance": 0.247427, "dry_up": 1.175492, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056455, "annualized_volatility": 0.189963, "from_high_reference": -0.344828, "from_low_reference": 0.085714 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.717, "fair_value_reference": 3.837179, "structural_low": 3.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.007608, "positive_rate": 0.53125, "directional_follow_through": 0.40625, "median_excess_return": 0.00499, "regime_survival": 0.71875, "best_return": 0.824427, "worst_return": -0.131367, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.01475, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.018466, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.473282, "worst_return": -0.182957, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.045016, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.024719, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.40458, "worst_return": -0.110738, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.125518, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.032838, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.388679, "worst_return": -0.080386, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060241, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.012158, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036474, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.045902, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.07346, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.031579, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.041451, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053985, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0975, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-10", 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"energy": 32.737272, "activity_lines": [ 3.384, 3.358, 3.448429, 3.579161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.46, "volume": 463116693, "typical_volume": 421217085.35, "trend": 3.74, "fair_value": 3.8325, "relative_strength": -10.9405, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.870425, "energy": 28.030155, "activity_lines": [ 3.406, 3.377091, 3.439429, 3.55957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.42, "volume": 438934826, "typical_volume": 417663893.65, "trend": 3.717, "fair_value": 3.837179, "relative_strength": -13.956271, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.885202, "energy": 24.813863, "activity_lines": [ 3.408667, 3.389636, 3.429143, 3.538925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }