{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c682984-5d10-47ac-8aff-0e429aa29911", "symbol": "OPY", "name": "Oppenheimer Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.375, "architecture_energy": 37.047, "architecture_maturity": 43.655, "architecture_confidence": 70.147, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.43, "rotation_up": 46.3, "upward_expansion": 75.46, "deceleration": 68.57, "rotation_down": 23.06, "downward_expansion": 4.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 109.814, 109.124909, 105.371064, 101.86298 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 111.64, "trend_reference": 96.731266, "distance_from_trend": 0.154125, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 61.502919, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.815198, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 17.138962, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.212275, "excess_performance": 0.08665, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.154125, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.150178, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.815198, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109853, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.17139, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04824, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.212275, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.482286, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 641946, "relative_activity": 1.341998, "balance": 1.482286, "dry_up": 1.297972, "accumulation_observations": 7, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08716, "annualized_volatility": 0.40037, "from_high_reference": -0.094125, "from_low_reference": 0.780645 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 96.731266, "fair_value_reference": 61.502919, "structural_low": 81.457348, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.007873, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00725, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.250237, "worst_return": -0.160008, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.052156, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.003236, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.423961, "worst_return": -0.159948, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.168249, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.048917, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.321391, "worst_return": -0.368596, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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100.438048, 98.564606, 94.940881 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 109.46, "volume": 587331, "typical_volume": 378797.2, "trend": 90.485157, "fair_value": 59.181658, "relative_strength": 22.612933, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.046521, "energy": 56.277042, "activity_lines": [ 106.237333, 102.190176, 99.913515, 96.257053 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 115.12, "volume": 707013, "typical_volume": 404494.1, "trend": 91.929003, "fair_value": 59.671642, "relative_strength": 26.248609, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.057795, "energy": 70.974242, "activity_lines": [ 109.775333, 104.859233, 101.688179, 97.846397 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 109.13, "volume": 509608, "typical_volume": 415548.5, "trend": 93.127003, "fair_value": 60.115304, "relative_strength": 20.906793, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.809854, "energy": 59.931442, "activity_lines": [ 110.130667, 106.284, 102.764095, 98.956139 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 109.69, "volume": 509939, "typical_volume": 430003.95, "trend": 94.321726, "fair_value": 60.571822, "relative_strength": 21.56165, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.616021, "energy": 56.558392, "activity_lines": [ 110.291333, 107.560909, 103.783714, 100.02472 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 106.64, "volume": 822053, "typical_volume": 457057.25, "trend": 95.465236, "fair_value": 61.022929, "relative_strength": 16.41844, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.867893, "energy": 40.65558, "activity_lines": [ 109.27, 108.004545, 104.397138, 100.819447 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 111.64, "volume": 641946, "typical_volume": 478351.1, "trend": 96.731266, "fair_value": 61.502919, "relative_strength": 17.138962, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.374904, "energy": 37.046559, "activity_lines": [ 109.814, 109.124909, 105.371064, 101.86298 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }