{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c6a3761-4d05-41b6-ae50-0a8281de588d", "symbol": "DBN", "name": "Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 81.016, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 57.807, "architecture_energy": 72.557, "architecture_maturity": 14.474, "architecture_confidence": 71.59, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.27, "rotation_up": 77.03, "upward_expansion": 65.01, "deceleration": 22.2, "rotation_down": 16.79, "downward_expansion": 23.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 628.580648, 615.362896, 597.715206, 592.225045 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 647.659973, "trend_reference": 599.173714, "distance_from_trend": 0.080922, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 430.379028, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.50486, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.247839, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.056269, "excess_performance": -0.001602, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080922, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035664, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.50486, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020587, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.012478, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.151563, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.056269, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 57.360485, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26015, "relative_activity": 3.88591, "balance": 57.360485, "dry_up": 0.982419, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032683, "annualized_volatility": 0.329681, "from_high_reference": -0.081727, "from_low_reference": 0.268933 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 599.173714, "fair_value_reference": 430.379028, "structural_low": 510.397156, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.027796, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.020162, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.151529, "worst_return": -0.028462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.188467, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.062352, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.271739, "worst_return": 0.048761, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.045, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.028546, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.345825, "worst_return": -0.029198, "sufficient": false }, { 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605.579325, 597.023995, 585.149066, 587.027506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 635.849976, "volume": 262, "typical_volume": 5404.4, "trend": 600.527797, "fair_value": 427.388723, "relative_strength": -0.783534, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 57.772267, "energy": 67.036911, "activity_lines": [ 616.639986, 605.761082, 591.014676, 589.18426 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 647.659973, "volume": 26015, "typical_volume": 6694.7, "trend": 599.173714, "fair_value": 430.379028, "relative_strength": 1.247839, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 57.807049, "energy": 72.557331, "activity_lines": [ 628.580648, 615.362896, 597.715206, 592.225045 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }