{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c71126c-3788-41c3-8087-548fb15c159c", "symbol": "603915", "name": "Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.554, "architecture_energy": 67.559, "architecture_maturity": 19.555, "architecture_confidence": 86.918, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.36, "rotation_up": 10.2, "upward_expansion": 14.87, "deceleration": 37.95, "rotation_down": 67.34, "downward_expansion": 85.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.061333, 13.708413, 14.761422, 15.186384 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.58, "trend_reference": 15.872566, "distance_from_trend": -0.144436, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.429965, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.058903, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.763974, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.210924, "excess_performance": -0.16772, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.144436, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056336, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.058903, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.25387, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.15764, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150134, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.210924, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.658312, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27279754, "relative_activity": 0.698321, "balance": 0.658312, "dry_up": 0.815353, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.133113, "annualized_volatility": 0.509811, "from_high_reference": -0.334504, "from_low_reference": 0.131667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.872566, "fair_value_reference": 14.429965, "structural_low": 12.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.005025, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.002541, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.284008, "worst_return": -0.26907, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.036685, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.033634, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.302846, "worst_return": -0.366872, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.10808, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.07868, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.231943, "worst_return": -0.282944, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": -19.190681, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.044129, "energy": 68.556292, "activity_lines": [ 14.114667, 14.899476, 15.485379, 15.821095 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.05, "volume": 30861658, "typical_volume": 39615085.35, "trend": 16.200566, "fair_value": 14.492932, "relative_strength": -23.344543, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.002328, "energy": 71.726318, "activity_lines": [ 13.283333, 14.231953, 15.140345, 15.543424 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.12, "volume": 29796807, "typical_volume": 39179950.5, "trend": 16.033566, "fair_value": 14.457179, "relative_strength": -16.59792, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.135375, "energy": 70.305874, "activity_lines": [ 13.066667, 13.885973, 14.921312, 15.344678 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.58, "volume": 27279754, "typical_volume": 39064781.15, "trend": 15.872566, "fair_value": 14.429965, "relative_strength": -15.763974, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.553956, "energy": 67.558916, "activity_lines": [ 13.061333, 13.708413, 14.761422, 15.186384 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }