{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c777ead-83df-45ea-acfd-f82693e69ec3", "symbol": "CIFR", "name": "Cipher Mining Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 65.038, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 1.794, "architecture_energy": 8.897, "architecture_maturity": 27.399, "architecture_confidence": 69.782, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.94, "rotation_up": 19.32, "upward_expansion": 46.59, "deceleration": 84.05, "rotation_down": 34.04, "downward_expansion": 26.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.124, 21.389273, 21.529167, 20.264935 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 17.18, "trend_reference": 18.8025, "distance_from_trend": -0.086292, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.401859, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.044786, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.368831, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.166327, "excess_performance": -0.021126, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.086292, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106561, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.044786, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.972324, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103688, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.493026, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.166327, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.739019, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 208725800, "relative_activity": 1.624929, "balance": 0.739019, "dry_up": 1.222314, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.354163, "annualized_volatility": 1.02717, "from_high_reference": -0.429993, "from_low_reference": 2.678801 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.8025, "fair_value_reference": 8.401859, "structural_low": 11.72, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.101818, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.071215, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.524752, "worst_return": -0.33414, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.271978, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.240189, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.544776, "worst_return": -0.346341, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.009756, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.179077, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.009756, "worst_return": 0.009756, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.280488, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.054171, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.280488, "worst_return": 0.280488, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.321229, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.301616, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.236842, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.028571, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.138843, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.197492, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.019947, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.151543, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.51092, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063736, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0691, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056237, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.135, "volume": 10337432, "typical_volume": 7054713.25, "trend": 2.581167, "fair_value": 5.129027, "relative_strength": 46.402189, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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8.068462, "relative_strength": -0.300319, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.388584, "energy": 17.133029, "activity_lines": [ 21.161333, 22.528909, 21.231, 19.815204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.15, "volume": 165716701, "typical_volume": 121964315.4, "trend": 18.580167, "fair_value": 8.194423, "relative_strength": 31.339678, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.419732, "energy": 22.04388, "activity_lines": [ 21.222667, 22.597455, 21.589595, 20.127151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.32, "volume": 152319450, "typical_volume": 122825127.35, "trend": 18.784167, "fair_value": 8.315256, "relative_strength": 23.766599, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.418925, "energy": 16.732365, "activity_lines": [ 21.409333, 22.463818, 21.823762, 20.36843 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.18, "volume": 208725800, "typical_volume": 128452278.1, "trend": 18.8025, "fair_value": 8.401859, "relative_strength": -10.368831, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.793925, "energy": 8.896822, "activity_lines": [ 20.124, 21.389273, 21.529167, 20.264935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }