{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c7a50c4-0f19-46f7-9521-34683aa436c8", "symbol": "UEFD", "name": "UBS MSCI EMU Small Cap UCITS ETF EUR dis", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 49.993, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.426, "architecture_energy": 35.568, "architecture_maturity": 45.299, "architecture_confidence": 63.987, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.64, "rotation_up": 38.99, "upward_expansion": 66.55, "deceleration": 80.38, "rotation_down": 27.46, "downward_expansion": 16.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 154.83933, 154.868, 154.648381, 152.714774 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 155.179993, "trend_reference": 150.612333, "distance_from_trend": 0.030327, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 125.756498, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.233972, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.653859, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.052782, "excess_performance": -0.063881, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.030327, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03799, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.233972, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037203, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.046539, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083021, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.052782, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.113065, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.113065, "dry_up": 0.53637, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012512, "annualized_volatility": 0.167189, "from_high_reference": -0.030367, "from_low_reference": 0.182234 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 150.612333, "fair_value_reference": 125.756498, "structural_low": 131.259995, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.010434, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.004539, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.090741, "worst_return": -0.045181, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.030477, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.008982, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.1428, "worst_return": -0.070525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.043378, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.017884, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.136628, "worst_return": -0.03448, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"activity_lines": [ 154.031335, 155.148184, 153.524858, 151.688732 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 155.240005, "volume": 7, "typical_volume": 73.15, "trend": 149.928334, "fair_value": 125.154516, "relative_strength": -3.071331, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.651086, "energy": 25.994254, "activity_lines": [ 154.24067, 155.079457, 153.963002, 152.063958 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 155.179993, "volume": 20, "typical_volume": 68.25, "trend": 150.344, "fair_value": 125.451642, "relative_strength": -3.780188, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.551455, "energy": 27.434332, "activity_lines": [ 154.567333, 154.962001, 154.341953, 152.402775 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 155.179993, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 68.05, "trend": 150.612333, "fair_value": 125.756498, "relative_strength": -4.653859, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.426094, "energy": 35.568092, "activity_lines": [ 154.83933, 154.868, 154.648381, 152.714774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }