{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c7b0e53-7a44-4afd-8c96-c1341ccb309e", "symbol": "ASML1N", "name": "ASML Holding N.V.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.56, "architecture_energy": 28.391, "architecture_maturity": 66.926, "architecture_confidence": 90.154, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.24, "rotation_up": 27.19, "upward_expansion": 58.01, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 27.66, "downward_expansion": 21.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 30163.890227, 30631.869274, 29616.243381, 28396.203763 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 30280.0, "trend_reference": 26937.680101, "distance_from_trend": 0.124076, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17297.941999, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.750497, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 29.150219, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.243936, "excess_performance": 0.298603, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.124076, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.16355, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.750497, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098579, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.291502, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047816, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.243936, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.577387, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 562, "relative_activity": 1.04675, "balance": 0.577387, "dry_up": 2.653194, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060293, "annualized_volatility": 0.292189, "from_high_reference": -0.090838, "from_low_reference": 1.246794 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26937.680101, "fair_value_reference": 17297.941999, "structural_low": 22590.181641, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.040237, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.038392, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.220991, "worst_return": -0.060754, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.004045, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.027006, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.324313, "worst_return": -0.114215, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.07764, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.012933, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.051467, "worst_return": -0.103813, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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31016.278461, 29294.306036, 28012.089691 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28734.0, "volume": 2881, "typical_volume": 519.75, "trend": 26689.526325, "fair_value": 17177.784503, "relative_strength": 24.092999, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.839244, "energy": 35.603816, "activity_lines": [ 30253.525955, 30687.33896, 29392.46285, 28164.5603 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30280.0, "volume": 562, "typical_volume": 536.9, "trend": 26937.680101, "fair_value": 17297.941999, "relative_strength": 29.150219, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.560492, "energy": 28.390793, "activity_lines": [ 30163.890227, 30631.869274, 29616.243381, 28396.203763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }