{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c7ea166-d5fc-4974-8d27-1d84411b925b", "symbol": "SGLD", "name": "Invesco Physical Gold ETC", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 52.824, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.774, "architecture_energy": 46.836, "architecture_maturity": 58.883, "architecture_confidence": 63.371, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.3, "rotation_up": 26.01, "upward_expansion": 19.2, "deceleration": 66.74, "rotation_down": 45.83, "downward_expansion": 69.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 347.616673, 346.997095, 356.639765, 366.880475 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 362.170013, "trend_reference": 379.563001, "distance_from_trend": -0.045824, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 268.719487, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.347762, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.304215, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.098855, "excess_performance": -0.269747, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045824, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002585, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.347762, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.171782, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.133042, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136801, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.098855, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.673865, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 112386, "relative_activity": 1.546403, "balance": 0.673865, "dry_up": 1.258074, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034412, "annualized_volatility": 0.22442, "from_high_reference": -0.188905, "from_low_reference": 0.321306 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 379.563001, "fair_value_reference": 268.719487, 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337.230011, "volume": 112639, "typical_volume": 90491.25, "trend": 381.124334, "fair_value": 265.298461, "relative_strength": -16.538592, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.54727, "energy": 88.354808, "activity_lines": [ 343.674005, 349.850367, 363.213811, 373.158496 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 344.25, "volume": 79991, "typical_volume": 81505.05, "trend": 380.445, "fair_value": 266.404038, "relative_strength": -14.655735, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.752435, "energy": 63.034169, "activity_lines": [ 343.397337, 347.596367, 360.277954, 370.779507 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 337.75, "volume": 60710, "typical_volume": 78698.6, "trend": 379.910001, "fair_value": 267.480961, "relative_strength": -16.755315, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.285122, "energy": 66.175246, "activity_lines": [ 341.219336, 344.740002, 357.089287, 368.024991 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 362.170013, "volume": 112386, "typical_volume": 72675.75, "trend": 379.563001, "fair_value": 268.719487, "relative_strength": -13.304215, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.774038, "energy": 46.83636, "activity_lines": [ 347.616673, 346.997095, 356.639765, 366.880475 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }