{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c82a047-1806-43b6-9ad4-8adb56f9e5f4", "symbol": "002811", "name": "Shenzhen Cheng Chung Design Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.175, "architecture_energy": 75.679, "architecture_maturity": 39.517, "architecture_confidence": 88.189, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.01, "rotation_up": 12.22, "upward_expansion": 17.24, "deceleration": 39.79, "rotation_down": 71.64, "downward_expansion": 90.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.049333, 10.545091, 11.389716, 12.112378 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.27, "trend_reference": 13.149222, "distance_from_trend": -0.218965, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.712123, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.057441, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.587711, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.31003, "excess_performance": -0.31743, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.218965, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068406, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.057441, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.411553, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.235877, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11821, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.31003, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.598421, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21868769, "relative_activity": 1.0472, "balance": 0.598421, "dry_up": 1.138483, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10276, "annualized_volatility": 0.462428, "from_high_reference": -0.424002, "from_low_reference": 0.173714 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.149222, "fair_value_reference": 9.712123, "structural_low": 8.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.012999, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.132912, "worst_return": -0.171123, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.081216, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.121697, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.154794, "worst_return": 0.008734, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.10591, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.155323, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.128487, "worst_return": 0.083333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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9.666433, "relative_strength": -23.519068, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.613763, "energy": 74.912245, "activity_lines": [ 10.932667, 11.364293, 12.132119, 12.799985 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.3, "volume": 27216361, "typical_volume": 23794296.75, "trend": 13.452947, "fair_value": 9.679556, "relative_strength": -28.798979, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.273753, "energy": 81.431029, "activity_lines": [ 10.307333, 10.917247, 11.801655, 12.52337 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.11, "volume": 25707603, "typical_volume": 22222234.8, "trend": 13.297426, "fair_value": 9.695616, "relative_strength": -21.226699, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.950768, "energy": 80.349893, "activity_lines": [ 10.114667, 10.688182, 11.576769, 12.307696 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.27, "volume": 21868769, "typical_volume": 20883079.7, "trend": 13.149222, "fair_value": 9.712123, "relative_strength": -23.587711, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.174673, "energy": 75.678755, "activity_lines": [ 10.049333, 10.545091, 11.389716, 12.112378 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }