{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c8302b6-de90-42b4-81e2-053c73887284", "symbol": "MTF-F127", "name": "Migdal Mutual Funds Ltd. - ETF Stock Market Fund", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.608, "architecture_energy": 66.811, "architecture_maturity": 85.869, "architecture_confidence": 89.068, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.03, "rotation_up": 29.61, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.59, "rotation_down": 55.84, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.176, 47.779091, 1083.143095, 1695.48871 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 47.33, "trend_reference": 2361.320667, "distance_from_trend": -0.979956, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2415.024259, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.980402, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.342188, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.984912, "excess_performance": -1.013813, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.979956, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.294363, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.980402, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.554464, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.983422, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.070444, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.984912, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.003489, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 205647, "relative_activity": 2.060738, "balance": 3.003489, "dry_up": 2.584573, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 8.73471, "annualized_volatility": 6.373108, "from_high_reference": -0.989695, "from_low_reference": 0.133381 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2361.320667, "fair_value_reference": 2415.024259, "structural_low": 41.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.114882, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.114018, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.114882, "worst_return": -0.114882, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012259, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.088353, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.194149, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011879, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.406839, "energy": 68.407332, "activity_lines": [ 47.899333, 284.605273, 1483.227571, 2013.656538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.44, "volume": 53783, "typical_volume": 94017.2, "trend": 2464.043, "fair_value": 2437.152243, "relative_strength": -98.404163, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.168676, "energy": 67.730769, "activity_lines": [ 47.284, 128.669818, 1275.579714, 1851.405677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.33, "volume": 205647, "typical_volume": 99792.9, "trend": 2361.320667, "fair_value": 2415.024259, "relative_strength": -98.342188, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.607713, "energy": 66.81115, "activity_lines": [ 47.176, 47.779091, 1083.143095, 1695.48871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }