{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c836e50-756d-4158-87c5-d0378e5cef47", "symbol": "ALCRB", "name": "Carbios SAS", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.542, "architecture_energy": 22.514, "architecture_maturity": 97.999, "architecture_confidence": 78.093, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.63, "rotation_up": 34.1, "upward_expansion": 21.11, "deceleration": 44.16, "rotation_down": 28.24, "downward_expansion": 59.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.722667, 6.336727, 6.614905, 7.023688 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.91, "trend_reference": 7.785833, "distance_from_trend": -0.112491, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.545481, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.489867, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.506088, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.298121, "excess_performance": -0.351432, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.112491, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159364, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.489867, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025157, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.245061, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092999, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.298121, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.714842, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 142526, "relative_activity": 1.284488, "balance": 1.714842, "dry_up": 1.917734, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.143493, "annualized_volatility": 0.709324, "from_high_reference": -0.563763, "from_low_reference": 0.331407 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.785833, "fair_value_reference": 13.545481, "structural_low": 5.19, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.033019, "positive_rate": 0.371429, "directional_follow_through": 0.628571, "median_excess_return": -0.035561, "regime_survival": 0.885714, "best_return": 0.297821, "worst_return": -0.463595, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.130415, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.129663, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.470411, "worst_return": -0.501435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.079737, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.050172, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.152542, "worst_return": -0.67217, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.240876, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.198058, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.669623, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.222646, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04828, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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6.978548, 7.613075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.49, "volume": 83836, "typical_volume": 104020.25, "trend": 8.372167, "fair_value": 14.042853, "relative_strength": -38.681253, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.02412, "energy": 79.719648, "activity_lines": [ 5.733333, 6.140545, 6.790357, 7.413452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.4, "volume": 63883, "typical_volume": 101355.4, "trend": 8.1945, "fair_value": 13.907596, "relative_strength": -39.411437, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.855691, "energy": 70.527187, "activity_lines": [ 5.618667, 5.93, 6.612524, 7.221699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.8, "volume": 464869, "typical_volume": 105629.9, "trend": 8.057833, "fair_value": 13.780673, "relative_strength": -23.437431, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.493349, "energy": 47.443571, "activity_lines": [ 5.969333, 6.013091, 6.585738, 7.131731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.4, "volume": 179884, "typical_volume": 107470.95, "trend": 7.926833, "fair_value": 13.663365, "relative_strength": -17.686124, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.206053, "energy": 23.37637, "activity_lines": [ 6.475333, 6.215818, 6.62331, 7.08929 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.91, "volume": 142526, "typical_volume": 110959.35, "trend": 7.785833, "fair_value": 13.545481, "relative_strength": -24.506088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.542267, "energy": 22.514303, "activity_lines": [ 6.722667, 6.336727, 6.614905, 7.023688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }