{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c846691-63f0-4bda-9b78-6db19b54db3d", "symbol": "002542", "name": "China Zhonghua Geotechnical Engineering Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.712, "architecture_energy": 37.943, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.374, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.13, "rotation_up": 28.0, "upward_expansion": 26.31, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 30.86, "downward_expansion": 64.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.584, 1.491091, 1.57419, 1.867527 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.65, "trend_reference": 2.320333, "distance_from_trend": -0.288895, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.853333, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.421729, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -45.992406, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.516129, "excess_performance": -0.523529, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.288895, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.22921, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.421729, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057208, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.459924, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094647, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.516129, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.825527, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 198130875, "relative_activity": 0.856539, "balance": 0.825527, "dry_up": 0.889332, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110023, "annualized_volatility": 0.581487, "from_high_reference": -0.650424, "from_low_reference": 0.398305 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.320333, "fair_value_reference": 2.853333, "structural_low": 1.18, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.01107, "positive_rate": 0.515152, "directional_follow_through": 0.424242, "median_excess_return": 0.002819, "regime_survival": 0.848485, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.259146, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.01107, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.066985, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 3.099338, "worst_return": -0.432133, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.120853, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.219048, "worst_return": -0.634349, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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222385690.55, "trend": 2.433667, "fair_value": 2.867179, "relative_strength": -48.03842, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.138856, "energy": 63.462422, "activity_lines": [ 1.417333, 1.419636, 1.61681, 1.963677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.67, "volume": 165487650, "typical_volume": 226513360.55, "trend": 2.376667, "fair_value": 2.860321, "relative_strength": -43.621132, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.539019, "energy": 50.303469, "activity_lines": [ 1.52, 1.457273, 1.592619, 1.914409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.65, "volume": 198130875, "typical_volume": 231315561.8, "trend": 2.320333, "fair_value": 2.853333, "relative_strength": -45.992406, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.7121, "energy": 37.943214, "activity_lines": [ 1.584, 1.491091, 1.57419, 1.867527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }