{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c88f2de-5462-415f-908d-b89148db6d42", "symbol": "MPT", "name": "Impianti S.P.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 52.572, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.951, "architecture_energy": 17.336, "architecture_maturity": 34.623, "architecture_confidence": 76.729, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.8, "rotation_up": 26.39, "upward_expansion": 53.95, "deceleration": 89.9, "rotation_down": 25.34, "downward_expansion": 17.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.9072, 0.919891, 0.898867, 0.886692 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.9, "trend_reference": 0.873733, "distance_from_trend": 0.030063, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.686013, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.311929, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.119965, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.071429, "excess_performance": -0.099463, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.030063, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020295, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.311929, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.166922, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.1712, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120291, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.071429, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.969697, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22500, "relative_activity": 0.539568, "balance": 1.969697, "dry_up": 0.602518, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077009, "annualized_volatility": 0.510857, "from_high_reference": -0.338235, "from_low_reference": 0.267606 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.873733, "fair_value_reference": 0.686013, "structural_low": 0.71, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.08467, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.091536, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.090909, "worst_return": 0.078431, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.029412, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.078556, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.029412, "worst_return": -0.029412, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.068627, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.013501, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.068627, "worst_return": 0.068627, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.688525, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.264706, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.089431, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.214953, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.231579, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.175439, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward 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0.878633, "fair_value": 0.685808, "relative_strength": -16.847848, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.142861, "energy": 60.577575, "activity_lines": [ 0.937867, 0.92, 0.8886, 0.879045 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.886, "volume": 21000, "typical_volume": 72900.0, "trend": 0.8765, "fair_value": 0.685526, "relative_strength": -17.645339, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.283717, "energy": 26.522024, "activity_lines": [ 0.916267, 0.919273, 0.889962, 0.87952 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.948, "volume": 24000, "typical_volume": 70125.0, "trend": 0.877433, "fair_value": 0.685897, "relative_strength": -10.986785, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.674655, "energy": 24.366124, "activity_lines": [ 0.922667, 0.928255, 0.896867, 0.884133 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.894, "volume": 33000, "typical_volume": 65250.0, "trend": 0.8769, "fair_value": 0.685859, "relative_strength": -15.894674, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.654385, "energy": 18.171391, "activity_lines": [ 0.9112, 0.924655, 0.897781, 0.885202 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.9, "volume": 22500, "typical_volume": 41700.0, "trend": 0.873733, "fair_value": 0.686013, "relative_strength": -17.119965, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.951401, "energy": 17.335725, "activity_lines": [ 0.9072, 0.919891, 0.898867, 0.886692 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }