{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c9851e3-ea50-429a-9416-dab34326d5b8", "symbol": "300453", "name": "Jiangxi Sanxin Medtec Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 82.624, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 7.842, "architecture_energy": 7.819, "architecture_maturity": 23.189, "architecture_confidence": 70.629, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.9, "rotation_up": 45.31, "upward_expansion": 35.52, "deceleration": 31.8, "rotation_down": 23.04, "downward_expansion": 19.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.508, 9.429091, 9.453165, 9.465498 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.55, "trend_reference": 9.433127, "distance_from_trend": 0.01239, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.711613, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.238392, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.856435, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.046809, "excess_performance": 0.03941, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01239, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010518, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.238392, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15228, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.008564, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047118, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.046809, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.483619, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 73892983, "relative_activity": 1.716884, "balance": 0.483619, "dry_up": 1.148942, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065241, "annualized_volatility": 0.321937, "from_high_reference": -0.153289, "from_low_reference": 0.134449 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.433127, "fair_value_reference": 7.711613, "structural_low": 8.662897, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.007075, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": 0.015535, "regime_survival": 0.470588, "best_return": 0.086225, "worst_return": -0.163104, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.079021, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.004227, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.10532, "worst_return": -0.261355, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.047646, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.058132, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.160903, "worst_return": -0.207034, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.097462, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.017228, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.288756, "worst_return": -0.295679, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06762, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04602, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.131215, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005031, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053001, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.131467, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.109529, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017582, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038002, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.74, "volume": 47821136, "typical_volume": 43173281.25, "trend": 9.399315, "fair_value": 7.690575, "relative_strength": 6.190253, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.082313, "energy": 8.491587, "activity_lines": [ 9.481333, 9.384545, 9.447312, 9.455777 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.55, "volume": 73892983, "typical_volume": 43038997.35, "trend": 9.433127, "fair_value": 7.711613, "relative_strength": -0.856435, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.84236, "energy": 7.818787, "activity_lines": [ 9.508, 9.429091, 9.453165, 9.465498 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }