{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c997de5-d27a-4a33-bdc2-32585d8b1fb9", "symbol": "ZWE", "name": "BMO Europe High Dividend Covered Call Hedged to CAD ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 64.564, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.287, "architecture_energy": 66.456, "architecture_maturity": 31.995, "architecture_confidence": 74.712, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.78, "rotation_up": 65.36, "upward_expansion": 85.11, "deceleration": 51.51, "rotation_down": 18.6, "downward_expansion": 11.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.891918, 21.772198, 21.536469, 21.337125 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.219999, "trend_reference": 21.163143, "distance_from_trend": 0.049938, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.810062, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.181283, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.305616, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.045528, "excess_performance": -0.074894, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049938, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022059, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.181283, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036802, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.043056, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025307, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.045528, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.631697, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 99500, "relative_activity": 1.079351, "balance": 1.631697, "dry_up": 1.035689, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016315, "annualized_volatility": 0.128584, "from_high_reference": -0.005817, "from_low_reference": 0.176387 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.163143, "fair_value_reference": 18.810062, "structural_low": 19.667345, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.008569, "positive_rate": 0.684211, "directional_follow_through": 0.684211, "median_excess_return": 0.003499, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.035341, "worst_return": -0.091115, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.010967, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.00752, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.061634, "worst_return": -0.025298, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.051392, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.014991, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.103162, "worst_return": -0.084669, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.100239, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.058869, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.124707, "worst_return": -0.03188, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005668, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004803, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01701, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035473, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"close": 21.629444, "volume": 121400, "typical_volume": 105060.0, "trend": 21.077677, "fair_value": 18.730758, "relative_strength": -4.576112, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.836043, "energy": 43.243021, "activity_lines": [ 21.59497, 21.572712, 21.350142, 21.208617 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.969999, "volume": 85400, "typical_volume": 97655.0, "trend": 21.120456, "fair_value": 18.769897, "relative_strength": -2.492434, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.715316, "energy": 48.315381, "activity_lines": [ 21.715781, 21.656065, 21.435034, 21.266186 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.219999, "volume": 99500, "typical_volume": 92185.0, "trend": 21.163143, "fair_value": 18.810062, "relative_strength": -4.305616, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.286801, "energy": 66.455958, "activity_lines": [ 21.891918, 21.772198, 21.536469, 21.337125 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }