{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5c9e5694-c521-4cbe-9022-627e95338e1f", "symbol": "SJNK", "name": "State Street SPDR Bloomberg U.S. High Yield Corporate Scored UCITS ETF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 72.219, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.507, "architecture_energy": 25.291, "architecture_maturity": 44.037, "architecture_confidence": 79.56, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.6, "rotation_up": 32.47, "upward_expansion": 57.94, "deceleration": 87.76, "rotation_down": 30.91, "downward_expansion": 23.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.202021, 32.249166, 32.152766, 32.020367 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 32.365002, "trend_reference": 31.885248, "distance_from_trend": 0.015046, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.398853, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.03077, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.607646, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.023755, "excess_performance": -0.059128, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015046, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003296, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.03077, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009329, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086076, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051369, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.023755, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 20.112903, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 20.112903, "dry_up": 4.28759, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009021, "annualized_volatility": 0.06791, "from_high_reference": -0.021614, "from_low_reference": 0.04225 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.885248, "fair_value_reference": 31.398853, "structural_low": 31.052999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.003343, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.007051, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.021652, "worst_return": -0.105959, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.004001, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.003038, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.01596, "worst_return": -0.062711, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.027362, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.013276, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.084815, "worst_return": -0.048703, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.021374, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -3e-05, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.011414, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00118, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025487, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005453, 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"2026-04-10", "close": 31.907, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 25.3, "trend": 31.805855, "fair_value": 30.974471, "relative_strength": -4.075566, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.603148, "energy": 22.187988, "activity_lines": [ 31.766933, 31.606618, 31.671691, 31.738806 ] }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "close": 31.874001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 25.3, "trend": 31.804833, "fair_value": 30.998918, "relative_strength": -5.749998, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.072885, "energy": 27.772114, "activity_lines": [ 31.831267, 31.671437, 31.680599, 31.743203 ] }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "close": 31.607, "volume": 70, "typical_volume": 28.8, "trend": 31.794847, "fair_value": 31.021276, "relative_strength": -4.565417, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.512361, "energy": 23.48606, 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"down", "direction": -21.781934, "energy": 18.841214, "activity_lines": [ 31.7256, 31.7416, 31.665684, 31.719222 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 31.687, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 32.5, "trend": 31.785472, "fair_value": 31.111367, "relative_strength": -6.193891, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.193311, "energy": 18.831343, "activity_lines": [ 31.709267, 31.737691, 31.663806, 31.712772 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 31.976999, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 22.35, "trend": 31.780489, "fair_value": 31.133387, "relative_strength": -5.459839, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.932143, "energy": 38.837525, "activity_lines": [ 31.802066, 31.782454, 31.690872, 31.725129 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 32.157001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 22.35, "trend": 31.782471, "fair_value": 31.156618, "relative_strength": -3.722141, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 52.354552, "energy": 71.854685, "activity_lines": [ 31.9302, 31.851346, 31.736666, 31.74942 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 32.393002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 22.35, "trend": 31.80743, "fair_value": 31.181692, "relative_strength": -5.122144, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 66.033352, "energy": 86.727549, "activity_lines": [ 32.108734, 31.953437, 31.806367, 31.788809 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 32.805, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 22.35, "trend": 31.843614, "fair_value": 31.210377, "relative_strength": -4.17595, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 96.233393, "energy": 98.44409, "activity_lines": [ 32.380601, 32.1216, 31.914486, 31.853168 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 33.080002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 22.35, "trend": 31.876362, "fair_value": 31.239385, "relative_strength": -5.894582, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 97.245073, "energy": 98.980158, "activity_lines": [ 32.672668, 32.323437, 32.041753, 31.932935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 31.908712, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 22.35, "trend": 31.869778, "fair_value": 31.262954, "relative_strength": -10.546424, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.730356, "energy": 83.560699, "activity_lines": [ 32.481438, 32.290385, 32.050487, 31.935022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 31.908712, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 22.35, "trend": 31.866506, "fair_value": 31.289631, "relative_strength": -9.106429, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.036319, "energy": 53.410874, "activity_lines": [ 32.294761, 32.251846, 32.056271, 31.937534 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.043934, "volume": 39, "typical_volume": 16.4, "trend": 31.868673, "fair_value": 31.316916, "relative_strength": -9.144855, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.20069, "energy": 29.187967, "activity_lines": [ 32.169711, 32.234699, 32.071981, 31.948981 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.282509, "volume": 1207, "typical_volume": 76.75, "trend": 31.879243, "fair_value": 31.344533, "relative_strength": -8.110953, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.100438, "energy": 34.816207, "activity_lines": [ 32.147456, 32.255276, 32.105985, 31.97568 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.090298, "volume": 60, "typical_volume": 79.75, "trend": 31.883406, "fair_value": 31.371245, "relative_strength": -8.457233, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.667185, "energy": 27.72703, "activity_lines": [ 32.095964, 32.230915, 32.117786, 31.989297 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.365002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 76.15, "trend": 31.885248, "fair_value": 31.398853, "relative_strength": -8.607646, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.507483, "energy": 25.291225, "activity_lines": [ 32.202021, 32.249166, 32.152766, 32.020367 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }