{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5cac1260-7c54-4f36-9b55-8b2e34430293", "symbol": "QUED", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy Quality Europe UCITS ETF Dis", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 73.932, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.769, "architecture_energy": 52.638, "architecture_maturity": 48.222, "architecture_confidence": 63.318, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.61, "rotation_up": 47.64, "upward_expansion": 76.26, "deceleration": 64.41, "rotation_down": 26.61, "downward_expansion": 7.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 156.690665, 156.373091, 154.505285, 152.649791 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 159.399994, "trend_reference": 150.750584, "distance_from_trend": 0.057376, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 132.485936, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.203147, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.443425, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.071302, "excess_performance": 0.006662, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.057376, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034471, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.203147, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037638, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.014434, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047186, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.071302, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.240623, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1, "relative_activity": 0.008889, "balance": 0.240623, "dry_up": 1.282222, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018203, "annualized_volatility": 0.152336, "from_high_reference": -0.002253, "from_low_reference": 0.227853 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 150.750584, "fair_value_reference": 132.485936, "structural_low": 136.652745, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.000903, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.003937, "regime_survival": 0.74359, "best_return": 0.075527, "worst_return": -0.091989, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.003951, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007868, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.100647, "worst_return": -0.092381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.044358, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.012701, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.136595, "worst_return": -0.181757, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.359678, "energy": 61.344922, "activity_lines": [ 152.933329, 151.762933, 149.667327, 148.702687 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 156.320007, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 106.95, "trend": 147.473623, "fair_value": 130.622645, "relative_strength": 6.362472, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.538979, "energy": 71.047733, "activity_lines": [ 154.408, 152.690527, 150.388965, 149.317064 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 154.960007, "volume": 131, "typical_volume": 113.45, "trend": 147.978145, "fair_value": 130.882598, "relative_strength": 6.530398, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.641412, "energy": 69.186558, "activity_lines": [ 154.854669, 153.240364, 150.941125, 149.800057 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 158.860001, "volume": 8, "typical_volume": 113.7, "trend": 148.596353, "fair_value": 131.187766, "relative_strength": 4.316052, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.055204, "energy": 80.109443, "activity_lines": [ 156.397336, 154.481455, 151.835336, 150.502112 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 155.740005, "volume": 901, "typical_volume": 158.45, "trend": 149.115781, "fair_value": 131.448771, "relative_strength": 4.936578, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.131494, "energy": 71.693358, "activity_lines": [ 156.470671, 155.001093, 152.377465, 150.962993 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 155.039993, "volume": 380, "typical_volume": 177.35, "trend": 149.542048, "fair_value": 131.699906, "relative_strength": 5.202782, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.440579, "energy": 58.590768, "activity_lines": [ 156.065334, 155.265091, 152.829344, 151.3452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 155.100006, "volume": 195, "typical_volume": 187.1, "trend": 149.951391, "fair_value": 131.943532, "relative_strength": 3.896493, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.999185, "energy": 46.518235, "activity_lines": [ 155.704002, 155.45782, 153.278344, 151.703778 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 155.559998, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 131.0, "trend": 150.345394, "fair_value": 132.205177, "relative_strength": 1.867992, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.542984, "energy": 35.465086, "activity_lines": [ 155.577334, 155.599637, 153.735143, 152.065624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 159.399994, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 112.5, "trend": 150.750584, "fair_value": 132.485936, "relative_strength": 1.443425, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.769362, "energy": 52.638282, "activity_lines": [ 156.690665, 156.373091, 154.505285, 152.649791 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }