{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5cad08e4-7c50-4322-8efe-cfab88bd651b", "symbol": "HDV", "name": "iShares Core High Dividend ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.384, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.0, "architecture_energy": 83.55, "architecture_maturity": 75.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.161, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.62, "rotation_up": 28.0, "upward_expansion": 37.0, "deceleration": 23.0, "rotation_down": 44.72, "downward_expansion": 71.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 498.09871, 491.098653, 616.384366, 970.718633 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 495.0, "trend_reference": 1418.412756, "distance_from_trend": -0.651018, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1955.967412, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.746928, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -72.758019, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.788878, "excess_performance": -0.734211, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.651018, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.288089, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.746928, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030065, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.72758, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084809, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.788878, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.752448, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 656, "relative_activity": 2.070054, "balance": 2.752448, "dry_up": 1.194383, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017744, "annualized_volatility": 2.239985, "from_high_reference": -0.797819, "from_low_reference": 0.083303 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1418.412756, "fair_value_reference": 1955.967412, "structural_low": 456.936065, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.003424, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.003098, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.092979, "worst_return": -0.072165, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.001037, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.054132, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.115656, "worst_return": -0.099898, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.027994, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.136726, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": -0.009478, "worst_return": -0.793, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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971.434214, 1323.074614 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 488.480652, "volume": 385, "typical_volume": 295.05, "trend": 1644.364555, "fair_value": 1987.748384, "relative_strength": -75.160967, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.646422, "energy": 62.350254, "activity_lines": [ 480.089886, 476.182014, 881.586228, 1244.791327 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 495.0, "volume": 748, "typical_volume": 279.35, "trend": 1588.075566, "fair_value": 1979.677654, "relative_strength": -74.344227, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.314084, "energy": 61.546603, "activity_lines": [ 486.003571, 480.273234, 801.400932, 1170.638776 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 490.0, "volume": 52, "typical_volume": 281.45, "trend": 1531.931531, "fair_value": 1971.705098, "relative_strength": -73.965585, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.880627, "energy": 60.508195, "activity_lines": [ 488.799587, 482.804831, 729.696933, 1099.795191 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 512.0, "volume": 58, "typical_volume": 284.35, "trend": 1475.755107, "fair_value": 1964.097371, "relative_strength": -72.432323, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.0, "energy": 83.55, "activity_lines": [ 497.365529, 488.910273, 669.29776, 1033.993156 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 495.0, "volume": 656, "typical_volume": 316.9, "trend": 1418.412756, "fair_value": 1955.967412, "relative_strength": -72.758019, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.0, "energy": 83.55, "activity_lines": [ 498.09871, 491.098653, 616.384366, 970.718633 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }