{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5cadb71e-a1db-44bc-ba99-1b0cc600f14b", "symbol": "PENINLAND", "name": "Peninsula Land Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.028, "architecture_energy": 20.924, "architecture_maturity": 86.719, "architecture_confidence": 76.332, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.37, "rotation_up": 27.11, "upward_expansion": 17.19, "deceleration": 53.21, "rotation_down": 41.37, "downward_expansion": 64.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.316667, 16.277637, 16.536476, 16.80357 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.120001, "trend_reference": 17.507333, "distance_from_trend": -0.079243, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 38.381603, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.580007, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.384977, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.175869, "excess_performance": -0.13216, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.079243, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.181186, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.580007, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03953, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.30385, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021897, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.175869, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.812132, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 351462, "relative_activity": 0.323519, "balance": 0.812132, "dry_up": 0.394823, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087898, "annualized_volatility": 0.671175, "from_high_reference": -0.59599, "from_low_reference": 0.166426 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.507333, "fair_value_reference": 38.381603, "structural_low": 13.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.001699, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.034488, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.422018, "worst_return": -0.320085, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.058031, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.064267, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.578512, "worst_return": -0.420599, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.082723, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.023811, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.855372, "worst_return": -0.441199, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.162568, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.334231, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", 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"typical_volume": 1471445.3, "trend": 18.693333, "fair_value": 38.801282, "relative_strength": -24.87399, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.81974, "energy": 18.13752, "activity_lines": [ 16.390667, 16.263091, 16.704809, 17.28714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.77, "volume": 858382, "typical_volume": 1435654.45, "trend": 18.421, "fair_value": 38.705898, "relative_strength": -26.24674, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.121255, "energy": 12.976929, "activity_lines": [ 16.972667, 16.505636, 16.793571, 17.22757 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.09, "volume": 223608, "typical_volume": 1372380.0, "trend": 18.092667, "fair_value": 38.601667, "relative_strength": -30.468822, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.543852, "energy": 19.514529, "activity_lines": [ 16.804667, 16.446909, 16.724619, 17.077183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.5, "volume": 282243, "typical_volume": 1240228.25, "trend": 17.768333, "fair_value": 38.499744, "relative_strength": -33.715739, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.260528, "energy": 24.643462, "activity_lines": [ 16.450667, 16.293818, 16.601095, 16.909914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.120001, "volume": 351462, "typical_volume": 1086370.55, "trend": 17.507333, "fair_value": 38.381603, "relative_strength": -30.384977, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.0275, "energy": 20.924335, "activity_lines": [ 16.316667, 16.277637, 16.536476, 16.80357 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }