{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5cb11bea-b5d2-4ed9-8683-f9132d5f5d4b", "symbol": "YCL", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST II ULTRA YEN", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 65.728, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.391, "architecture_energy": 19.022, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.556, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.77, "rotation_up": 28.81, "upward_expansion": 17.19, "deceleration": 43.88, "rotation_down": 30.41, "downward_expansion": 64.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.794933, 17.6957, 17.850665, 18.021121 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 18.3618, "trend_reference": 18.307063, "distance_from_trend": 0.00299, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.903804, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.161707, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.214399, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.025382, "excess_performance": -0.151007, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00299, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028765, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.161707, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015057, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.152144, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037299, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.025382, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.450939, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 256326, "relative_activity": 1.369098, "balance": 0.450939, "dry_up": 1.298431, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02217, "annualized_volatility": 0.149957, "from_high_reference": -0.183557, "from_low_reference": 0.080742 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.307063, "fair_value_reference": 21.903804, "structural_low": 16.99, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 47, "median_return": -0.023094, "positive_rate": 0.340426, "directional_follow_through": 0.659574, "median_excess_return": -0.018938, "regime_survival": 0.893617, "best_return": 0.185541, "worst_return": -0.129299, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.062489, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.074646, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.184113, "worst_return": -0.173279, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.114353, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.153642, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.145978, "worst_return": -0.288991, "sufficient": true }, { 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"relative_strength": -19.783111, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.011883, "energy": 72.707563, "activity_lines": [ 17.61658, 17.768202, 17.993572, 18.208662 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.3, "volume": 163978, "typical_volume": 185389.35, "trend": 18.429003, "fair_value": 22.097318, "relative_strength": -18.84103, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.34774, "energy": 77.388753, "activity_lines": [ 17.497127, 17.650858, 17.912517, 18.132339 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.07, "volume": 173444, "typical_volume": 177687.5, "trend": 18.356337, "fair_value": 22.024113, "relative_strength": -18.80176, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.475417, "energy": 79.714535, "activity_lines": [ 17.337667, 17.518424, 17.8177, 18.044662 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.95, "volume": 378634, "typical_volume": 184387.8, "trend": 18.320337, "fair_value": 21.958664, "relative_strength": -14.856383, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.357593, "energy": 49.987246, "activity_lines": [ 17.511333, 17.567716, 17.813978, 18.018446 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.3618, "volume": 256326, "typical_volume": 187222.55, "trend": 18.307063, "fair_value": 21.903804, "relative_strength": -15.214399, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.390627, "energy": 19.022032, "activity_lines": [ 17.794933, 17.6957, 17.850665, 18.021121 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }