{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5cb1d96e-58a6-4c27-bea3-5b0e1d33f40d", "symbol": "002195", "name": "Shanghai Stonehill Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.0, "architecture_energy": 53.22, "architecture_maturity": 72.379, "architecture_confidence": 73.731, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.0, "rotation_up": 26.15, "upward_expansion": 16.15, "deceleration": 66.98, "rotation_down": 51.39, "downward_expansion": 77.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.513333, 6.506909, 7.095372, 7.707692 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.01, "trend_reference": 8.528027, "distance_from_trend": -0.178004, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.075929, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.381028, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.98241, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.285965, "excess_performance": -0.293365, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.178004, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018422, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.381028, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.53793, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.149824, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13504, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.285965, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.890646, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1362645602, "relative_activity": 1.792603, "balance": 0.890646, "dry_up": 1.52141, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092037, "annualized_volatility": 0.435125, "from_high_reference": -0.468399, "from_low_reference": 0.261118 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.528027, "fair_value_reference": 5.075929, "structural_low": 5.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.034653, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.181818, "median_excess_return": 0.00555, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.279279, "worst_return": -0.115672, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.00233, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.007778, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.082949, "worst_return": -0.190299, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.032143, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.04459, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.686567, "worst_return": 0.013806, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 940204512.85, "trend": 8.560848, "fair_value": 5.005583, "relative_strength": -27.916871, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.483589, "energy": 93.473859, "activity_lines": [ 6.251333, 6.674501, 7.499738, 8.08991 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.89, "volume": 821959187, "typical_volume": 817210256.9, "trend": 8.532906, "fair_value": 5.025269, "relative_strength": -25.918504, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.729124, "energy": 87.18645, "activity_lines": [ 6.064, 6.453526, 7.279264, 7.917598 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.8, "volume": 1666563066, "typical_volume": 767386014.7, "trend": 8.530632, "fair_value": 5.04983, "relative_strength": -13.166022, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.747525, "energy": 64.918789, "activity_lines": [ 6.262, 6.448873, 7.168634, 7.805797 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.01, "volume": 1362645602, "typical_volume": 760149302.35, "trend": 8.528027, "fair_value": 5.075929, "relative_strength": -14.98241, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.999733, "energy": 53.220182, "activity_lines": [ 6.513333, 6.506909, 7.095372, 7.707692 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }