{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5cb22b52-9065-45fe-9125-9d97b9e72171", "symbol": "TAL", "name": "PetroTal Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 52.237, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.92, "architecture_energy": 22.897, "architecture_maturity": 17.574, "architecture_confidence": 82.05, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.58, "rotation_up": 20.86, "upward_expansion": 24.75, "deceleration": 66.94, "rotation_down": 49.46, "downward_expansion": 31.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.483333, 0.486909, 0.512429, 0.509548 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.47, "trend_reference": 0.492, "distance_from_trend": -0.044715, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.580637, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.190544, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.216953, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.175, "excess_performance": 0.054579, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.044715, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057307, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.190544, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154602, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.19217, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091543, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.175, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.256813, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3021100, "relative_activity": 0.724965, "balance": 1.256813, "dry_up": 0.517867, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090016, "annualized_volatility": 0.533808, "from_high_reference": -0.326731, "from_low_reference": 0.424242 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.492, "fair_value_reference": 0.580637, "structural_low": 0.39, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.013335, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.015072, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.27778, "worst_return": -0.135135, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.083373, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.007433, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.789472, "worst_return": -0.393939, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.002857, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.125966, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.578948, "worst_return": -0.142857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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{ "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060606, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.114754, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.093023, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.384615, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": 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2232700, "typical_volume": 5897475.0, "trend": 0.482667, "fair_value": 0.581709, "relative_strength": -18.261276, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.757272, "energy": 41.55102, "activity_lines": [ 0.475333, 0.506909, 0.523286, 0.509441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.5, "volume": 1843000, "typical_volume": 5399210.0, "trend": 0.486333, "fair_value": 0.581548, "relative_strength": -14.026474, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.489724, "energy": 37.157694, "activity_lines": [ 0.482667, 0.500909, 0.520857, 0.510559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.49, "volume": 1535500, "typical_volume": 4723300.0, "trend": 0.489333, "fair_value": 0.581275, "relative_strength": -14.207344, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.442547, "energy": 20.600286, "activity_lines": [ 0.487333, 0.494727, 0.517476, 0.510796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.47, "volume": 3021100, "typical_volume": 4167235.0, "trend": 0.492, "fair_value": 0.580637, "relative_strength": -19.216953, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.920092, "energy": 22.897267, "activity_lines": [ 0.483333, 0.486909, 0.512429, 0.509548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }