{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5cb3e3a6-f86b-4f69-80f3-6e8d6f205d0b", "symbol": "CMG", "name": "Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 71.803, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -18.121, "architecture_energy": 9.834, "architecture_maturity": 22.139, "architecture_confidence": 63.165, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.28, "rotation_up": 26.13, "upward_expansion": 29.14, "deceleration": 39.42, "rotation_down": 32.83, "downward_expansion": 48.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.155333, 34.024727, 33.471905, 33.665785 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 32.79, "trend_reference": 34.557, "distance_from_trend": -0.051133, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 47.017781, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.302604, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.223669, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.167555, "excess_performance": -0.29318, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.051133, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016283, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.302604, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015296, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.192237, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100839, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.167555, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.007939, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 128855792, "relative_activity": 1.462043, "balance": 1.007939, "dry_up": 1.142717, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100113, "annualized_volatility": 0.456127, "from_high_reference": -0.259318, "from_low_reference": 0.169609 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.557, "fair_value_reference": 47.017781, "structural_low": 28.035, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.003754, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016551, "regime_survival": 0.357143, "best_return": 0.210345, "worst_return": -0.25495, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.103353, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.004728, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.25823, "worst_return": -0.217905, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.138138, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.059387, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.446997, "worst_return": -0.353524, 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.073004, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.031939, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087048, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.165, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.056679, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", 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"trend": 35.117333, "fair_value": 47.137851, "relative_strength": -14.635159, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.529217, "energy": 14.877377, "activity_lines": [ 34.336, 33.257091, 33.160286, 33.891527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.44, "volume": 95889482, "typical_volume": 85920393.45, "trend": 35.010667, "fair_value": 47.089535, "relative_strength": -14.063236, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.045895, "energy": 18.678096, "activity_lines": [ 34.569333, 33.556545, 33.261524, 33.847828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.79, "volume": 82171854, "typical_volume": 86508112.5, "trend": 34.81, "fair_value": 47.048122, "relative_strength": -19.310136, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.665594, "energy": 18.237466, "activity_lines": [ 33.772, 33.338727, 33.123619, 33.640043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.22, "volume": 95932283, "typical_volume": 86489367.85, "trend": 34.801, "fair_value": 47.044326, "relative_strength": -5.89613, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.837917, "energy": 23.001735, "activity_lines": [ 34.831333, 34.123818, 33.519905, 33.795527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.79, "volume": 128855792, "typical_volume": 88134082.35, "trend": 34.557, "fair_value": 47.017781, "relative_strength": -19.223669, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.120837, "energy": 9.834069, "activity_lines": [ 34.155333, 34.024727, 33.471905, 33.665785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }