{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5cb5b173-9404-403f-96e5-f1e000f3ec40", "symbol": "JNJ", "name": "Johnson & Johnson", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.378, "architecture_energy": 49.709, "architecture_maturity": 37.924, "architecture_confidence": 53.044, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.96, "rotation_up": 56.98, "upward_expansion": 78.35, "deceleration": 70.54, "rotation_down": 18.58, "downward_expansion": 7.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 224.633336, 222.525638, 213.600748, 210.102195 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 221.75, "trend_reference": 205.244414, "distance_from_trend": 0.080419, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 152.266719, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.456326, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.333421, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.111585, "excess_performance": -0.062662, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080419, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081721, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.456326, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.174735, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.023334, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018512, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.111585, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.285815, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 524, "relative_activity": 1.938945, "balance": 0.285815, "dry_up": 1.658649, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048655, "annualized_volatility": 0.259776, "from_high_reference": -0.075849, "from_low_reference": 0.546998 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 205.244414, "fair_value_reference": 152.266719, "structural_low": 186.236325, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.004005, "positive_rate": 0.483871, "directional_follow_through": 0.483871, "median_excess_return": -0.001667, "regime_survival": 0.774194, "best_return": 0.148557, "worst_return": -0.084807, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.02284, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.047515, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.203374, "worst_return": -0.12801, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.056446, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.072569, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.386481, "worst_return": -0.065692, "sufficient": true }, { 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"fair_value": 150.141483, "relative_strength": 2.944022, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.710463, "energy": 88.251277, "activity_lines": [ 220.922667, 212.568049, 206.456175, 203.948801 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 222.5, "volume": 566, "typical_volume": 260.0, "trend": 200.013289, "fair_value": 150.676839, "relative_strength": 3.09735, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.036564, "energy": 84.197494, "activity_lines": [ 222.974667, 215.543554, 208.153715, 205.499435 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 230.850006, "volume": 138, "typical_volume": 246.5, "trend": 201.951608, "fair_value": 151.233154, "relative_strength": 5.13953, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.989141, "energy": 87.379624, "activity_lines": [ 226.756669, 219.390183, 210.574424, 207.4889 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 224.350006, "volume": 565, "typical_volume": 253.6, "trend": 203.642331, "fair_value": 151.764085, "relative_strength": 1.951891, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.875153, "energy": 58.440349, "activity_lines": [ 226.19667, 221.409639, 212.242257, 208.933958 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 221.75, "volume": 524, "typical_volume": 270.25, "trend": 205.244414, "fair_value": 152.266719, "relative_strength": -2.333421, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.377605, "energy": 49.708697, "activity_lines": [ 224.633336, 222.525638, 213.600748, 210.102195 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }