{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5cc73309-b56f-49be-8c9c-b6b89de05524", "symbol": "VILR", "name": "Villar International Ltd.", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.058, "architecture_energy": 67.597, "architecture_maturity": 85.212, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 29.92, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.15, "rotation_down": 56.14, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 170.333333, 175.02, 5001.098012, 8387.287232 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 160.2, "trend_reference": 12324.13724, "distance_from_trend": -0.987001, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15990.259309, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.989981, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -99.057536, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.991746, "excess_performance": -1.020647, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.987001, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.328617, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.989981, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.145703, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.990575, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.774728, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.991746, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.135704, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 178254, "relative_activity": 6.416596, "balance": 0.135704, "dry_up": 2.157269, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 10.868338, "annualized_volatility": 6.337963, "from_high_reference": -0.992535, "from_low_reference": 0.016497 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12324.13724, "fair_value_reference": 15990.259309, "structural_low": 157.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.006674, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.001509, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 0.156318, "worst_return": -0.130993, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.086308, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.006325, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.263827, "worst_return": -0.989489, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.080491, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.058236, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.202586, "worst_return": -0.989122, "sufficient": true }, { 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.645586, "energy": 88.401185, "activity_lines": [ 178.113333, 2209.110909, 8089.379299, 10974.148237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 178.9, "volume": 21138, "typical_volume": 19890.3, "trend": 13540.658372, "fair_value": 16189.419698, "relative_strength": -99.025043, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.178619, "energy": 68.191881, "activity_lines": [ 178.086667, 1190.030909, 6973.435625, 10076.076589 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 173.0, "volume": 21192, "typical_volume": 19625.7, "trend": 12968.776667, "fair_value": 16090.553443, "relative_strength": -99.00588, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.065584, "energy": 67.825378, "activity_lines": [ 176.326667, 514.08, 5946.646706, 9213.647017 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 160.2, "volume": 178254, "typical_volume": 27780.15, "trend": 12324.13724, "fair_value": 15990.259309, "relative_strength": -99.057536, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.05828, "energy": 67.596924, "activity_lines": [ 170.333333, 175.02, 5001.098012, 8387.287232 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }