{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5cc8819b-6a8a-44a0-9275-92664348bb4a", "symbol": "EFPX", "name": "First Trust IPOX Europe Equity Opportunities UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.938, "architecture_energy": 23.102, "architecture_maturity": 64.109, "architecture_confidence": 79.486, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.22, "rotation_up": 21.32, "upward_expansion": 54.74, "deceleration": 91.06, "rotation_down": 36.87, "downward_expansion": 20.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.341666, 25.566363, 25.560976, 25.154247 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 25.594999, "trend_reference": 24.637667, "distance_from_trend": 0.038856, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.007186, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.218393, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.081803, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.089149, "excess_performance": -0.081743, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038856, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046615, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.218393, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014414, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.080818, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028639, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.089149, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.067233, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 755, "relative_activity": 1.45346, "balance": 3.067233, "dry_up": 0.552507, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025786, "annualized_volatility": 0.172948, "from_high_reference": -0.054488, "from_low_reference": 0.174891 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.637667, "fair_value_reference": 21.007186, "structural_low": 21.785, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.001322, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010537, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.057865, "worst_return": -0.037719, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.029268, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.021209, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.062361, "worst_return": -0.028929, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.005903, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.02784, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.08299, "worst_return": -0.03152, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042934, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009499, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033694, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037719, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025068, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011783, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0121, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009338, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.023913, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010861, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 16.344, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 843.75, "trend": 16.284333, "fair_value": 17.728513, "relative_strength": -5.689545, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early 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"up", "direction": 64.882169, "energy": 62.542345, "activity_lines": [ 26.298333, 26.127182, 25.379428, 24.870559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 25.24, "volume": 88, "typical_volume": 629.0, "trend": 24.297833, "fair_value": 20.783301, "relative_strength": -8.650041, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.826636, "energy": 44.365769, "activity_lines": [ 25.934333, 26.026, 25.426238, 24.936828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.834999, "volume": 6, "typical_volume": 588.6, "trend": 24.376, "fair_value": 20.835949, "relative_strength": -8.515386, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.525303, "energy": 28.172652, "activity_lines": [ 25.49, 25.831818, 25.427524, 24.971484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.32, "volume": 387, "typical_volume": 528.05, "trend": 24.470333, "fair_value": 20.89159, "relative_strength": -6.289703, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.221147, "energy": 28.571787, "activity_lines": [ 25.319333, 25.727545, 25.472238, 25.032387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.32, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 514.05, "trend": 24.555833, "fair_value": 20.947885, "relative_strength": -6.662255, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.420572, "energy": 29.048956, "activity_lines": [ 25.265333, 25.618636, 25.509619, 25.087204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.594999, "volume": 755, "typical_volume": 519.45, "trend": 24.637667, "fair_value": 21.007186, "relative_strength": -8.081803, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.938303, "energy": 23.101829, "activity_lines": [ 25.341666, 25.566363, 25.560976, 25.154247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }