{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5cd14c35-66e3-442b-957f-6588596c9802", "symbol": "000937", "name": "Jizhong Energy Resources Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.68, "architecture_energy": 21.867, "architecture_maturity": 67.863, "architecture_confidence": 76.677, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.88, "rotation_up": 35.13, "upward_expansion": 20.18, "deceleration": 44.1, "rotation_down": 25.38, "downward_expansion": 56.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.665333, 4.548902, 4.660496, 4.756123 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.68, "trend_reference": 4.847341, "distance_from_trend": -0.034522, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.078067, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.07839, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.472413, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.061041, "excess_performance": -0.068441, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.034522, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038286, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.07839, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095554, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104724, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096945, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.061041, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.729997, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 118353189, "relative_activity": 0.950765, "balance": 0.729997, "dry_up": 0.996949, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084884, "annualized_volatility": 0.378437, "from_high_reference": -0.175835, "from_low_reference": 0.209302 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.847341, "fair_value_reference": 5.078067, "structural_low": 3.87, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.042593, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.181818, "median_excess_return": 0.055644, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.233933, "worst_return": -0.012797, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.148132, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.064538, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.182445, "worst_return": 0.100746, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.142525, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.135099, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.167987, "worst_return": -0.184594, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.31868, "energy": 73.805988, "activity_lines": [ 4.298, 4.46994, 4.682378, 4.777858 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.8, "volume": 161013436, "typical_volume": 137697712.05, "trend": 4.85346, "fair_value": 5.078697, "relative_strength": -6.11156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.087885, "energy": 34.360724, "activity_lines": [ 4.474, 4.506531, 4.678865, 4.774472 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.74, "volume": 117765523, "typical_volume": 127773003.0, "trend": 4.850955, "fair_value": 5.078318, "relative_strength": -5.228579, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.113791, "energy": 18.03184, "activity_lines": [ 4.608, 4.532812, 4.671193, 4.767152 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.68, "volume": 118353189, "typical_volume": 124482019.1, "trend": 4.847341, "fair_value": 5.078067, "relative_strength": -10.472413, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.67977, "energy": 21.866838, "activity_lines": [ 4.665333, 4.548902, 4.660496, 4.756123 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }