{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5cd33f5f-cc25-4ae4-8253-f643944e0dab", "symbol": "PFRM3", "name": "Profarma Distribuidora de Produtos Farmac\u00eauticos S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.332, "architecture_energy": 25.595, "architecture_maturity": 67.506, "architecture_confidence": 67.46, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.5, "rotation_up": 26.22, "upward_expansion": 19.35, "deceleration": 46.28, "rotation_down": 29.59, "downward_expansion": 55.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.808, 6.746, 6.871381, 7.167957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.05, "trend_reference": 7.6, "distance_from_trend": -0.072368, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.054192, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.164482, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.773645, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.173505, "excess_performance": -0.116457, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.072368, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059395, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.164482, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082286, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.107736, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.116248, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.173505, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.000448, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 644800, "relative_activity": 0.811539, "balance": 1.000448, "dry_up": 0.902692, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075068, "annualized_volatility": 0.428797, "from_high_reference": -0.273196, "from_low_reference": 0.153846 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.6, "fair_value_reference": 6.054192, "structural_low": 6.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.010819, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": 0.001545, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.194267, "worst_return": -0.15862, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.132137, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.09139, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.326095, "worst_return": -0.252212, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.020797, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.054405, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.209664, "worst_return": -0.178765, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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7.564857 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 6.72, "volume": 77700, "typical_volume": 931115.0, "trend": 7.88373, "fair_value": 5.939659, "relative_strength": -18.384636, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.562096, "energy": 61.587585, "activity_lines": [ 6.630667, 6.702182, 7.137048, 7.486275 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 6.9, "volume": 442300, "typical_volume": 912820.0, "trend": 7.834476, "fair_value": 5.964542, "relative_strength": -17.299921, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.125106, "energy": 43.985912, "activity_lines": [ 6.722, 6.712, 7.075, 7.422808 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.77, "volume": 593700, "typical_volume": 902155.0, "trend": 7.776386, "fair_value": 5.988898, "relative_strength": -16.342472, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.168623, "energy": 37.542625, "activity_lines": [ 6.755333, 6.717091, 7.011286, 7.354132 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.25, "volume": 694000, "typical_volume": 892575.0, "trend": 7.690667, "fair_value": 6.008645, "relative_strength": -22.330054, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.858832, "energy": 46.940467, "activity_lines": [ 6.604, 6.634909, 6.908429, 7.255656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.92, "volume": 936400, "typical_volume": 877820.0, "trend": 7.638667, "fair_value": 6.030287, "relative_strength": -15.462665, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.429628, "energy": 29.909498, "activity_lines": [ 6.695333, 6.682727, 6.880905, 7.205935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.05, "volume": 644800, "typical_volume": 794540.0, "trend": 7.6, "fair_value": 6.054192, "relative_strength": -10.773645, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.331544, "energy": 25.59526, "activity_lines": [ 6.808, 6.746, 6.871381, 7.167957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }