{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5cd768f0-435b-446f-91df-a430394dc96c", "symbol": "2247", "name": "Pan German Universal Motors Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 77.108, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -18.483, "architecture_energy": 10.357, "architecture_maturity": 22.363, "architecture_confidence": 58.378, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.07, "rotation_up": 27.79, "upward_expansion": 27.9, "deceleration": 32.85, "rotation_down": 28.56, "downward_expansion": 48.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 225.8, 225.881936, 222.871035, 223.929066 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 226.5, "trend_reference": 229.812929, "distance_from_trend": -0.014416, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 258.78647, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.124761, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -35.276732, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.193602, "excess_performance": -0.539334, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014416, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060677, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.124761, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.112255, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.352767, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.14924, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.193602, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.231939, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 162804, "relative_activity": 0.380654, "balance": 4.231939, "dry_up": 0.681359, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051787, "annualized_volatility": 0.265906, "from_high_reference": -0.243438, "from_low_reference": 0.161693 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 229.812929, "fair_value_reference": 258.78647, "structural_low": 194.9741, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.01069, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.013947, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.145907, "worst_return": -0.055462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.011737, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.029033, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.052479, "worst_return": -0.152733, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.004903, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.097511, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.082281, "worst_return": -0.17753, 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259.802821, "relative_strength": -37.879903, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.560649, "energy": 11.06402, "activity_lines": [ 225.077766, 224.68923, 220.724848, 225.654127 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 230.0, "volume": 467496, "typical_volume": 427993.65, "trend": 233.854901, "fair_value": 259.577241, "relative_strength": -34.561696, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.052926, "energy": 7.288705, "activity_lines": [ 226.703231, 226.140583, 221.561746, 225.329219 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 228.5, "volume": 314179, "typical_volume": 428478.25, "trend": 232.608018, "fair_value": 259.293475, "relative_strength": -35.415313, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.56613, "energy": 8.970802, "activity_lines": [ 227.359724, 226.770121, 222.286636, 224.983742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 221.0, "volume": 221178, "typical_volume": 428113.15, "trend": 231.239459, "fair_value": 259.020995, "relative_strength": -38.665692, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.054993, "energy": 12.459742, "activity_lines": [ 225.533333, 225.803773, 222.293866, 224.234837 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 226.5, "volume": 162804, "typical_volume": 427695.3, "trend": 229.812929, "fair_value": 258.78647, "relative_strength": -35.276732, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.483254, "energy": 10.356581, "activity_lines": [ 225.8, 225.881936, 222.871035, 223.929066 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }