{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5cd77033-f920-4eb4-8c66-9a14f88f65a4", "symbol": "VULC3", "name": "Vulcabras S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.538, "architecture_energy": 53.847, "architecture_maturity": 62.907, "architecture_confidence": 92.588, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.35, "rotation_up": 25.77, "upward_expansion": 8.68, "deceleration": 53.71, "rotation_down": 56.53, "downward_expansion": 84.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.042, 14.177455, 14.629667, 15.232323 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 14.04, "trend_reference": 16.079, "distance_from_trend": -0.126811, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.312241, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.019022, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.059302, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.193103, "excess_performance": -0.136055, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.126811, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098424, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.019022, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.166843, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.210593, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004862, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.193103, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.039257, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7346200, "relative_activity": 1.595614, "balance": 1.039257, "dry_up": 1.00662, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053254, "annualized_volatility": 0.281632, "from_high_reference": -0.305972, "from_low_reference": 0.036928 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.079, "fair_value_reference": 14.312241, "structural_low": 13.54, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.02834, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.012784, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.15464, "worst_return": -0.102389, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.01831, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.019634, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.250921, "worst_return": -0.197383, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.426888, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.377619, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.818903, "worst_return": 0.034873, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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56.004532, "activity_lines": [ 14.424667, 14.557636, 15.220667, 15.886619 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.35, "volume": 3643300, "typical_volume": 5534310.0, "trend": 16.674333, "fair_value": 14.286241, "relative_strength": -21.373139, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.131587, "energy": 53.538972, "activity_lines": [ 14.382667, 14.482, 15.075286, 15.725183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.81, "volume": 4435100, "typical_volume": 5213150.0, "trend": 16.467333, "fair_value": 14.299368, "relative_strength": -24.016603, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.751828, "energy": 59.666494, "activity_lines": [ 14.195333, 14.34, 14.900762, 15.540387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.92, "volume": 3113300, "typical_volume": 4890995.0, "trend": 16.267667, "fair_value": 14.305099, "relative_strength": -24.633381, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.911015, "energy": 56.379108, "activity_lines": [ 14.082667, 14.237091, 14.753571, 15.376043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.04, "volume": 7346200, "typical_volume": 4603995.0, "trend": 16.079, "fair_value": 14.312241, "relative_strength": -21.059302, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.538281, "energy": 53.847163, "activity_lines": [ 14.042, 14.177455, 14.629667, 15.232323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }