{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5cd77d1e-1e5b-40e6-8783-83a94da7de97", "symbol": "CRSP", "name": "Crispr Therapeutics AG", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 59.557, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.164, "architecture_energy": 25.831, "architecture_maturity": 31.731, "architecture_confidence": 71.434, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.33, "rotation_up": 13.41, "upward_expansion": 12.47, "deceleration": 50.72, "rotation_down": 56.93, "downward_expansion": 66.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.872667, 51.414182, 51.890976, 51.854806 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 53.52, "trend_reference": 52.0155, "distance_from_trend": 0.028924, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 52.92484, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.011245, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.846854, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.098071, "excess_performance": -0.089382, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028924, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014867, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.011245, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015598, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.148469, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006072, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.098071, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.119042, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7477446, "relative_activity": 0.923307, "balance": 1.119042, "dry_up": 1.00268, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114101, "annualized_volatility": 0.633927, "from_high_reference": -0.318043, "from_low_reference": 0.213055 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.0155, "fair_value_reference": 52.92484, "structural_low": 44.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.059607, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": -0.045857, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.471864, "worst_return": -0.233376, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.082788, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.0909, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.408362, "worst_return": -0.341982, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.23165, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.269753, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.262373, "worst_return": -0.512477, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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53.348, 52.660818, 52.140976, 52.236892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 60.08, "volume": 6930047, "typical_volume": 8758133.85, "trend": 52.883833, "fair_value": 53.065609, "relative_strength": -6.680621, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.0077, "energy": 38.225595, "activity_lines": [ 55.586, 54.114545, 52.893952, 52.708043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 53.35, "volume": 8456867, "typical_volume": 8920823.95, "trend": 52.772833, "fair_value": 53.042788, "relative_strength": -18.097175, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.674323, "energy": 31.176177, "activity_lines": [ 55.320667, 54.139273, 52.972595, 52.738118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 47.78, "volume": 8732152, "typical_volume": 8880039.05, "trend": 52.5035, "fair_value": 52.985417, "relative_strength": -22.673532, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.973252, "energy": 7.621339, "activity_lines": [ 53.098, 53.12, 52.521286, 52.416 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.54, "volume": 8543721, "typical_volume": 8972843.3, "trend": 52.218833, "fair_value": 52.919071, "relative_strength": -22.676238, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.823214, "energy": 27.20489, "activity_lines": [ 50.596667, 52.003455, 52.010738, 52.031258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.99, "volume": 7727666, "typical_volume": 8244951.25, "trend": 52.026167, "fair_value": 52.900032, "relative_strength": -20.146234, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.862896, "energy": 35.828046, "activity_lines": [ 49.082, 51.184545, 51.685714, 51.75843 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.52, "volume": 7477446, "typical_volume": 8098545.4, "trend": 52.0155, "fair_value": 52.92484, "relative_strength": -14.846854, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.163744, "energy": 25.831262, "activity_lines": [ 49.872667, 51.414182, 51.890976, 51.854806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }