{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5cd9886f-027d-472e-87dd-a321bc5cba6f", "symbol": "QEC", "name": "Questerre Energy Corporation", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.006, "architecture_energy": 21.517, "architecture_maturity": 43.49, "architecture_confidence": 91.157, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.35, "rotation_up": 27.27, "upward_expansion": 16.06, "deceleration": 40.97, "rotation_down": 32.16, "downward_expansion": 61.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.788133, 1.770545, 1.830324, 1.869095 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.8, "trend_reference": 1.908233, "distance_from_trend": -0.056719, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.967673, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.085214, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.213119, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.020408, "excess_performance": -0.104586, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.056719, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077777, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.085214, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.227432, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.242131, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12907, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.020408, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.446686, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2737884, "relative_activity": 0.713506, "balance": 0.446686, "dry_up": 0.490055, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092607, "annualized_volatility": 0.419659, "from_high_reference": -0.425837, "from_low_reference": 0.097561 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.908233, "fair_value_reference": 1.967673, "structural_low": 1.64, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.003846, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.002722, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.700405, "worst_return": -0.116162, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.163244, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": 0.119038, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.799277, "worst_return": -0.097479, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.271605, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.150536, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.915966, "worst_return": -0.050505, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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1.734, "volume": 1587203, "typical_volume": 4905228.7, "trend": 1.9429, "fair_value": 1.965558, "relative_strength": -28.335596, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.697806, "energy": 41.929629, "activity_lines": [ 1.723467, 1.747673, 1.842962, 1.881189 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.88, "volume": 1029139, "typical_volume": 4487662.2, "trend": 1.924567, "fair_value": 1.967224, "relative_strength": -21.724106, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.981687, "energy": 27.481912, "activity_lines": [ 1.773467, 1.765455, 1.84, 1.877131 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.8, "volume": 2737884, "typical_volume": 3837227.85, "trend": 1.908233, "fair_value": 1.967673, "relative_strength": -24.213119, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.006267, "energy": 21.51732, "activity_lines": [ 1.788133, 1.770545, 1.830324, 1.869095 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }