{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5cdceef1-3bc0-4ef0-96c3-70b2236737c5", "symbol": "002737", "name": "Sunflower Pharmaceutical Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 64.665, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 20.266, "architecture_energy": 28.61, "architecture_maturity": 20.341, "architecture_confidence": 63.043, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.85, "rotation_up": 64.1, "upward_expansion": 42.5, "deceleration": 39.11, "rotation_down": 14.41, "downward_expansion": 15.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.309902, 12.896223, 12.817453, 12.874834 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.37, "trend_reference": 13.151843, "distance_from_trend": 0.016588, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.522093, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.278159, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.726131, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.050426, "excess_performance": -0.057826, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.016588, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05237, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.278159, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019395, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087261, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.174827, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.050426, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.827735, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29370142, "relative_activity": 1.233472, "balance": 0.827735, "dry_up": 1.819101, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063389, "annualized_volatility": 0.325696, "from_high_reference": -0.199401, "from_low_reference": 0.184845 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.151843, "fair_value_reference": 18.522093, "structural_low": 11.284178, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.013832, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.013363, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.103217, "worst_return": -0.142584, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.032824, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.022374, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0447, "worst_return": -0.132536, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.055411, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.003565, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.480204, "worst_return": -0.251675, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.155982, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.151156, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.217483, "worst_return": -0.264871, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-08", "end": "2023-09-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02521, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.182245, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015163, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059806, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.059563, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00941, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010337, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.060674, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-17", 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"activity_lines": [ 12.081133, 12.321334, 12.549363, 12.846815 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.64, "volume": 67528662, "typical_volume": 22176815.9, "trend": 13.316509, "fair_value": 18.663432, "relative_strength": -5.459718, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.868434, "energy": 13.538538, "activity_lines": [ 12.614115, 12.509966, 12.638433, 12.86446 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.03, "volume": 43854530, "typical_volume": 23610590.55, "trend": 13.244176, "fair_value": 18.61152, "relative_strength": -9.320671, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.519567, "energy": 16.677777, "activity_lines": [ 12.851752, 12.586597, 12.671265, 12.845975 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.52, "volume": 32504741, "typical_volume": 23632249.8, "trend": 13.198509, "fair_value": 18.567228, "relative_strength": -3.790329, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.947952, "energy": 20.371531, "activity_lines": [ 13.179041, 12.760683, 12.753478, 12.86377 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.37, "volume": 29370142, "typical_volume": 23810948.5, "trend": 13.151843, "fair_value": 18.522093, "relative_strength": -8.726131, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.26619, "energy": 28.610242, "activity_lines": [ 13.309902, 12.896223, 12.817453, 12.874834 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }